‘Trump management’: Everyone else has a plan to keep NATO summit on the rails

NATO banners are pictured in Ankara, Turkey on July 6, 2026.
Photo: Getty Images

After a bruising year of infighting, crises and recriminations, NATO countries are opting for a by-now-familiar playbook at the Ankara summit: Placate Donald Trump, and pray for no surprises.

NATO leaders gather in Turkey on Tuesday hoping for a show of unity after a year of unprecedented strain on the alliance, largely thanks to the U.S. president. After threatening to annex Greenland, Trump repeatedly bludgeoned allies for not helping Washington’s war effort in Iran — while his administration vowed reprisals for those not spending enough on defense.

“There’s no alternative how to approach him but to be diplomatic and not to extremely offend him and saying that we’re stepping up,” Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken told POLITICO. “That’s what we need to do and that’s what we’re doing.”

Yet despite NATO’s best efforts to keep the agenda consensual, Trump remains unpredictable. Anger over defense spending, U.S. access to European bases and defense cash — and the volatile ceasefire in Iran — could all set him off.

“If this conflict flares up again — which can't be ruled out — and then Trump again puts [out] statements that Europeans should step up,” said Gerlinde Niehus, a security expert and longtime NATO official, “then that topic would of course overshadow everything else.”

Going into the summit, a senior White House official described Trump’s mood as “a combination of optimism but also a level of being perturbed” over Iran.

No expense spared

NATO allies have gone to great lengths to keep Trump onside.

First, that means framing the summit in terms the U.S. president cares about, said a second senior NATO diplomat: “Money.”

NATO chief Mark Rutte has sought to make the case that allies are unleashing a tidal wave of cash since they committed last year to spending 3.5 percent of their GDP on defense by 2035. On a visit to Washington last month, he unveiled a chart with the headline “The Trump trillion.” Since 2025, Rutte told him, allies have spent an extra $139 billion on defense.

At an industry side event in Ankara, allies will also pledge “double digit” billions in procurement deals, said a person familiar with the matter.

“This will be the biggest defense industry forum ever — in terms of projects … to be announced,” Turkey’s envoy to NATO Basat Öztürk said.

Allies are seeking reconciliation on Iran, too. Despite it being far outside NATO’s core task of defending Europe, allies have agreed to allude to the U.S. war in Iran as part of the summit declaration, according to details of the draft shared with POLITICO — demanding the Strait of Hormuz remain open and that Tehran never acquires nuclear weapons.

Finally, allies will pledge to continue taking over the burden of responsibility for Europe’s defense. After the U.S. downsized capabilities like jets, bombers and destroyers from NATO’s war plans in May, other countries stepped up by offering more of their own forces — with most of those capabilities now replaced.

Closely related to that is the U.S. president’s lingering anger over European allies’ opposition to joining the Iran war. While a Franco-British initiative is under way to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz once a peace deal is agreed, the ceasefire remains fragile.

In Berlin, there are also fears that Trump could derail the summit by demanding Europe contribute to a purported €300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, according to two German officials.

‘Major transformation’

Yet behind the scenes, allies feel the days of NATO's unfettered appeasement of the U.S. president are numbered.

Europe and Canada still only account for 41 percent of NATO’s total defense spending — although that skews in Washington’s favor because the U.S. has vast defense spending unrelated to Europe. Washington also has unique capabilities like intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance, and air-to-air refueling alongside its nuclear umbrella.

But as non-U.S. defense spending grows, so will allied self-confidence. “This is the biggest transformation of NATO in history … I’m not sure everyone understands that in the U.S. administration,” said the first senior NATO diplomat. “They’re so used to leading,” they said, but that may change “in the coming years.”

In fact, that’s already happening. A U.K.-led grouping of around a dozen countries is set to announce a new coalition to develop deep precision strike capabilities at Ankara, despite skepticism from U.S. officials who warn long-range missiles increase the risk of escalation with Russia.

Europeans may also start being more demanding with Washington in shifting military assets across the alliance and in drafting war plans in NATO’s next four-year planning cycle, the two diplomats said.

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