РУССКИЙ
11:55 04.03.2025 •
Since Trump’s sonorous return to the White House, America’s resuscitated talks with Russia have dominated the geopolitical spotlight until the White House floor was mopped clean with Zelensky as a punitive cue to all vassals. The internationally televised mockery of Zelensky before an arranged flock of American media was the only event that approached the hullabaloo of Trump's triumphant return because, unlike in 2016 when champagne bottles were uncorked in jubilant celebration, Russia has learned to behold fewer illusions and offer only muted applause the second time around.
Regardless, any olive branch should be welcomed, though it was ultimately Putin who graciously provided America with a ladder to descend from its loss in Ukraine. That’s right: Russia inflicted a strategic defeat on NATO in Ukraine, giving that tarnished phrase—heavily recycled over the past three years—its rightful place in future history books.
Act I: The Opening Act
The goodwill between America and Russia took an early restorative step through a prisoner swap. Russia initiated the gesture by releasing Marc Fogel, an act that allowed Trump to bask in glory before the international community, particularly his domestic audience. As a seasoned leader who does not suffer from a need for validation, Putin was perfectly comfortable bestowing this accolade upon Trump. If one were to approach the president closely, they might even hear him utter, “Let him have it,” with suave nonchalance.
The first Russia-US peace talks occurred under the auspices of Riyadh, to the rightful marginalization of Ukraine and its European counterparts. Including these parties would have been pointless since they have long relinquished their decision-making authority to Washington. This arrangement also served as a wake-up call for those who were initially misled into believing that the conflict in Ukraine solely involves Russia and Ukraine. Both sides characterized the meeting as constructive, fostering the optimism the world has been yearning for—almost everyone, that is.
Act II: New Puppeteering Act of Zelensky
Indeed, there are some who are less than thrilled, with Zelensky easily topping the list, as evidenced by his tirade against Trump. Zelensky's decision to bite the hand that feeds him may stem from a cross of genuine desperation and the need to fulfill his histrionic role. As a recipient of a seemingly ceaseless gravy train and tranches of modern weaponry, Zelensky (along with his cronies) would soon suffer a decline in America's monetary largesse even if US weapons continue to flow through Israel or other channels. However, during his theatrical confrontation with Trump before a broadcast audience globally, Zelensky swiftly scored not one but several own goals, with Trump coming away as an America-loving, peace-seeking president who desires for his country to regain the good grace of Russia. Just when we thought Zelensky had outlived his usefulness, this malleable pawn demonstrated that he is still handy.
It also seems that Putin has successfully convinced Trump that a Ukrainian election is in order to ensure that any peace deal reached is inked by legitimate authorities. Russia is not interested in spending time negotiating and signing any agreement that stands at risk of being declared invalid.
Then there are the European elites who are experiencing political earthquakes on both sides of the Atlantic. Having relied on US defense and security for more than 70 years, Europeans are about to have that carpet pulled from under them despite their unwavering loyalty and unquestioning obedience to their Big Brother. The scene is far from rosy, with Starmer plunging in the polls, Macron’s government collapsing, Scholz suffering an embarrassing defeat, and Georgescu being arrested for what may be his only crime—that of winning the presidential election. Romania could have borrowed a potent method from an efficient Asian country that connives to disqualify endearing presidential candidates before they could snag a win. It is evident, even to the casual observer, that Europe’s political health is teetering on the brink of collapse; if the US packs up and leaves, the European center will rip apart at the seams.
The fiasco over the deployment of peacekeepers in Ukraine has also left European leaders divided. After years of struggling in abject futility to assume the mantle of European leadership, Macron remains far from assembling a unified European voice. Meanwhile, Starmer is pursuing a “US backstop,” but the only guarantee Trump envisions is the seizure of Ukrainian financial assets should their potential minerals agreement go awry. America may assert that the deal is dead, but one cannot be too certain, as the US needs Ukraine more than it is willing to admit and will lay hands on Ukraine’s resources one way or another. On top of seeking a massive debt recovery to the purported tune of $350 billion, the US is salivating over 36 of the 50 minerals in Ukraine critical to American industries. Without these resources, the US can forget about competing with China, which controls 90% of global refined output.
What about the illegitimate Ukrainian leader who was ejected from Washington? Zelensky may seem to be sulking at the moment, but a heartrending pucker is precisely what he needs to induce domestic support for his (still conceivable) concession of Ukraine’s valuable resources to America.
Act III: Europe Takes the Stage
Following his White House gig, Zelensky now passes the stage baton to Europe, which rallies around him to maintain the boogeyman they need in Russia to forge the illusion of a European cohesion, especially one suffering from a lack of leadership. While Poland may reject the idea of peacekeepers, it warmly welcomes American troops and weapons on its soil, all while thirsting for a hosting role in NATO’s nuclear sharing mission.
As a businessman who craves the best value on the cheapest dollar, Trump is reluctant to fund the entirety of European security but will not mind bolstering Poland to shore up Europe’s eastern flank. His use of soft power upon Russia may be working well, but for soft power to be truly effective, it must be backed up by hard power. A fortified Poland at Russia’s doorstep, coupled with a newly built military base in Estonia, would maintain pressure on Russia by ensuring a rapid and substantial surge capacity when the situation demands.
Act IV: US Returns to Russia’s Grace
Russia may have welcomed the restoration of diplomatic ties and cooperation with the US and enjoyed the Trump-Zelensky spectacle while savoring pirozhki, but would Russians re-embrace American goods and services that abruptly abandoned them in 2022? A society that hints heavily at Eurocentrism and traditional graciousness suggests they would.
Conversely, having incurred a loss of $300 billion by exiting the massive Russian market on impulse, American companies are also eager to return. However, their re-entry would not only ferry profits back to American headquarters but also undermine the domestic substitutes that Russian companies have painstakingly developed over the past three years.
After the Trump-Zelensky band played its halftime interlude, the US and Russia have returned to the negotiating table, as the latter continues to tolerate their American counterparts, who could not even locate Ukraine on the map prior to the Special Military Operation, let alone understand Russia’s people and history.
The evolving roster of American negotiators suggests that the US is uncertain about whom to send for negotiations with the Russians—an endeavor that demands both unique talent and specialized expertise on Russia. For too long, US officials, particularly those from the Department of Defense and the Department of State, have subscribed to the misguided belief that a language certificate from Monterey is sufficient to qualify someone as a foreign policy expert. It is little wonder that the US left a trail of chaos around the world, careening haphazardly as it piously instructed others on how to live.
Meanwhile, Putin’s friendly overtures toward Trump have unsettled those who fear that their leader has overlooked the lessons of the Minsk Agreement. What makes this situation even more unnerving is his willingness to collaborate with the Americans in the Arctic and in space technology—two areas where Russia has managed to leave America in the dust. It may take time for the US to catch up, but it won't be difficult as the US, with its far flatter organizational hierarchy spearheaded by Elon Musk, will vigorously promote innovation, direct communication, and highly efficient decision-making long seen in America’s globally successful private MNCs. Fooling Russia once did bring shame upon America, but deceiving the former twice would result in an inverse outcome.
As Trump works to cajole Russia and attempts to distance it from China before taking on the latter, cautious observers are monitoring whether Russia would stand by China in the same manner China came through for Russia during troubling times, albeit for its own strategic interests. Additionally, if BRICS succumb to Trump’s tariff threats and abandon their de-dollarization impetus, the world may revert to being led and swayed by the whims of a single power, reminiscent of a unipolar world order even as it struggles to stir up its corpse from its tomb.
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