U.S. Army secretary warned Ukraine of “imminent defeat” while pushing initial peace plan

U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll
Photo: Global Look Press

In a meeting with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv last week, U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll delivered a grim assessment.

Driscoll told his counterparts their troops faced a dire situation on the battlefield and would suffer an imminent defeat against Russian forces, two sources with knowledge of the matter told NBC News.

The Russians were ramping up the scale and pace of their aerial attacks, and they had the ability to fight on indefinitely, Driscoll told them, according to the sources. The situation for Ukraine would only get worse over time, he continued, and it was better to negotiate a peace settlement now rather than end up in an even weaker position in the future.

And there was more bad news. The U.S. delegation also said America’s defense industry could not keep supplying Ukraine with the weapons and air defenses at the rate needed to protect the country’s infrastructure and population, the sources said.

Driscoll’s message came after he had presented a U.S.-backed peace plan that Kyiv officials viewed as a capitulation to Moscow, according to the two sources.

“The message was basically — you are losing,” one of the sources said, “and you need to accept the deal.”

The meeting between Driscoll and the Ukrainians was part of an effort by some Trump administration officials to press the Ukrainians to accept the new U.S.-backed peace proposal without delay, even though it embraced Russia’s maximalist demands and required painful concessions from Kyiv’s government, multiple current and former Western officials said.

Ukraine declined to sign on to the peace plan as it was presented, and the proposal has been heavily revised since the discussions between Driscoll and Ukrainian officials last week.

Taken aback by the peace proposal’s terms, Ukrainian Zelenskyy expressed grave doubts but stopped short of vetoing the plan, saying his government was ready to hold diplomatic discussions.

No deal could be reached quickly

By Tuesday, the Ukrainians had struck a positive note, expressing optimism about what was now a 19-point plan under discussion.

“Our delegations reached a common understanding on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva,” Rustem Umerov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defense council, wrote on social media. And he raised the prospect of a possible visit to Washington by Zelenskyy to seal the deal.

Ukraine has significantly amended the US “peace plan” to end the conflict, removing some of Russia’s maximalist demands, people familiar with the negotiations said, as European leaders warned on Monday that no deal could be reached quickly. They say there can be no recognition of land seized by Russia militarily, and that Kyiv should make its own decisions on whether to join the EU and NATO – something the Kremlin wants to veto or impose conditions on, ‘The Guardian’ writes.

But in the clearest sign yet the original 28-point plan – widely seen as favourable to Moscow – still falls short of several key Kremlin demands, Putin’s top foreign policy aide on Monday said Moscow would seek to “rework” parts of it.

“We were given some sort of draft… which will require further reworking,” said Yuri Ushakov, adding that “many provisions” of the plan appeared acceptable to Russia, but others would “require the most detailed discussions and review between the parties”.

Underscoring the Kremlin’s hardline stance, Ushakov said Moscow would reject a European counter-proposal from the weekend, which, according to a copy seen by Reuters, changes the meaning and significance of key points concerning Nato membership and territory.

“The European plan, at first glance… is completely unconstructive and does not work for us,” he said.

With the peace plan revised from its original form, it resembled previous proposals that Russia has rebuffed.

Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, who had “welcomed” the initial draft from last week, suggested Tuesday that the Kremlin might reject what was now on the table. Lavrov cited discussions in August between Trump and Putin at a summit in Anchorage, Alaska, saying the latest draft proposal appeared to contradict the understanding reached in those talks.

“Some forces want to jeopardize efforts by Donald Trump and to change the peace plan,” Lavrov said, adding, “If the ‘spirit’ of Anchorage will be wiped out from this plan, then it’s going to be a whole other story.”

Trump, meanwhile, ramped up pressure on Ukraine, telling reporters that Zelenskyy’s choice was to accept a peace deal or “continue to fight his little heart out.”

Three crucial areas where significant differences remain

But according to a senior Ukrainian source with direct knowledge of the negotiations, there are still significant gaps between what the Trump administration is asking of Ukraine, and what the embattled authorities in Kyiv are prepared to accept, CNN reports.

But the source said that, far from there being just a few minor points of disagreement, there are still at least three crucial areas where significant differences remain – differences that could make or break efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Firstly, the sensitive issue of whether Ukraine would surrender key territories in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, annexed but not yet conquered by Russia, and including the “fortress belt” of heavily defended towns and cities seen as vital for Ukrainian security.

Earlier US proposals called for Ukraine to hand over the land to become a Russian-administered demilitarized zone. The Ukrainian source told CNN that there has been “certain progress” on that proposal but that no decision on substance or wording in draft proposals had yet been reached.

“It would be very wrong to say we have now the version that is accepted by Ukraine,” the source added.

Secondly, the controversial US proposal for Ukraine to limit the size of its military to 600,000 – a figure envisaged in the 28-point plan – is also still being discussed. The Ukrainian source told CNN that a new, higher number has been spoken about, but that Kyiv still wanted further changes before it would be prepared to agree to such limitations on its military.

Finally, on the issue of Ukraine renouncing its ambition to become a member of NATO, the source told CNN that this demand remains unacceptable. Such a concession would set a “bad precedent”, the source told CNN, and would effectively give Russia a veto over the Western military alliance of “which it is not even a member.”

All three issues – the surrender of annexed territory, the demilitarization of Ukraine and its permanent exclusion from NATO – are the Kremlin’s most often cited reasons for waging war in Ukraine. Their resolution in Russia’s favor are also Moscow’s main conditions for ending its war campaign.

But all three points discussed by the source are also sensitive and long-standing red lines for Ukraine.

However the Trump administration spins it, these are far from just a “few remaining points of disagreement,” or “items that are not insurmountable,” or even “minor details to be sorted out”.

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