UnHerd: Pokrovsk could decide the Ukraine war

Vuhledar” means “gift of coal” in Ukrainian, a name bestowed on the Donetsk city in 1969 to reflect its status as a mining centre. However, Vuhledar is now a gift to the Russians. This week, Ukraine’s military command admitted that it had ordered its forces to withdraw, while Moscow has confirmed that the city is now under its control, UnHerd stresses.

The headline-hitting retreat will of course further sap Ukrainian morale. Moscow has taken what it once regarded as one of Ukraine’s toughest fortresses: Vuhledar’s uphill position and strong fortifications had allowed Kyiv to stubbornly defend it for over two and a half years and ensured that Russia’s two past major offensives proved humiliating setbacks accompanied by high losses of men and equipment.

There is also the personal embarrassment to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that, while he was recently in America touting his “victory plan” to US officials, the signs coming from Vuhledar were only of approaching defeat.

However, the seizure of Vuhledar constitutes a greater bruising to Ukraine than merely to its President’s ego. A supply hub, the city’s position on elevated ground at the intersection of the eastern and southern fronts made it a useful vantage point from which Ukrainian forces could shell Russian military supply lines.

It should also serve as a warning as Ukrainian forces brace for a battle for the highway and rail hub of Pokrovsk. Regarded by Moscow as vital for incorporating all of the Donetsk Oblast, the city of Pokrovsk possesses important industrial facilities and its seizure would severely disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front, as well as evacuations of wounded soldiers. “If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble”, Ukrainian military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov recently warned.

The loss of Vuhledar itself is therefore unlikely to have any significant impact on either side’s battlefield fortunes. However, perhaps what its capture reveals most is the momentum on Moscow’s side at this stage of the war, as Kyiv grapples with its endemic manpower and weapons shortages: Ukrainian troops estimated that the Russians were outnumbering them by seven to one at Vuhledar, commanders have complained of new recruits “freezing” in the face of Russia’s onslaught, and Moscow has taken advantage of these issues to gain as much territory in the first half of 2024 as it did in the whole of 2023.

This latest defeat is symbolically painful for Ukraine, but losing more strategically vital towns such as Pokrovsk could spur further Russian advances. It will be a long winter for Zelensky and his men, UnHerd notes.

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