РУССКИЙ
12:50 28.02.2025 •
Introduction
Russia looks like the winner following the outcome of the Munich Security Conference 2025 (MSC 2025), meeting with the United States delegation in Saudi Arabia on February 18th and the meeting of a few Members of the EU in Paris the same day and today 19th February via video, although no one should expect that the peace has been arriving in the world, Europe and Ukraine in the foreseeable future, even for a decade. Why?
In general, at present we have been managed by a few strong and many weak personalities of different cultural, educational and professional backgrounds within an outdated political, economic and social system based on expansion, debt and hypocrisy with all its lies, ignorance and illusions of knowing and observing and no common vision, interests and values.
As no one system as characterized above cannot be turned by peaceful means even with the help of the AI into an intensive system based on sharing, the law of the nature and human limitations. The current system entered objectively into a long lasting and complex conflict. For a few years I have been describing and calling it an anthropological war.
It is a great misunderstanding, intentional deceit of citizens, voters and the young(est) generation to reduce the Russian special military operation on Ukraine to a conflict between Russia and Ukraine only, or to a conflict between Russia and, so-called collective West, represented by NATO and governed by the USA, and not to address the issue of anthropology. Anthropology stands for a complex issue and process transforming a great variety of societies. It means much more than one could imagine and is willing to accept as a matter of fact. What do I mean?
We must first reject the anthropocentric prejudice that is widespread today of which its essence is that man is considered the measure of all things and that society is just a differentiated set of people with different social interests. This emphasis on human being lacks recognition of the systemic conflict between Culture and nature, understanding of the rights and culture of the Earth's superior creativity. We should ideally eliminate self-deception.
To be not misunderstood, a deceit means an act of causing someone to accept as true or valid what is false or invalid. And also know the main differences between lying and deception. First, unlike lying, deception implies success. Current quality of so called politically correct media stands for the evidence of omitting information, denying the truth, ignoring realities and exaggerating ideologized information. In case of individuals, we can observe everywhere how persons might agree with others when in fact they don't, in order to preserve a relationship as subconsciously they know that a relationship stands for all in our life. Second fact is that intentional false statements need not succeed in deceiving others in order to count as lies.
Today the challenge for us is even more complex, as the vast majority of politicians and people including the young generation are not able distinguish between truth, lie and bullshit. They know very little about the neuroscience studies and the use of MRI for instance when studying people saying truths, lies and bullshit.
Following the above definition, statement and objective laws of physics and nature governing the systems (extensive and intensive) and the unresolvable contradictions within the systems, one should apply between others also a contextual analysis. It includes a variety of the philosophical, ethical and moral aspects of the behaviour of individuals, nations and alliances. Hardly any one recognizes and appreciates the fact that the more advanced science and technology often spills over into philosophy and ethics. They represent a serious deficit in talking, thinking and acting of a great majority of the humans. It is important to mention this deficit in times of AI, as in the last two years, there has been a paradigm shift that I think most people still don't understand. Not understanding trends and paradigm shifts turns into ignorance and what is even more dangerous into the illusion of knowing and observing even geopolitics.
Brief description of geopolitical situation
It is clear that for the current American administration, Europe is no longer a foreign policy priority. The interest of the American politics is shifting to the Pacific region, to the area of Asia. Why? There are three gigantic economies in this area: Chinese, Japanese and Indian. They contribute significantly to the creation of the world's gross domestic product, world trade, and whether one likes it or not, especially China and India, to the important world geopolitics.
In general terms the geopolitical competition between China and the United States is one of a very few defining issues in international politics. It stands for a contest between the world’s largest economies, two different political systems and it is taking place in almost every region. Therefore, we have to consider a peacetime (economic) decoupling which might prompt China starting conflicts that it would otherwise avoid. No doubt it would cost Washington one of the strongest tools it has to deter Chinese activity, and at the same time, especially in case of failing the United States’ allies would have to participate, meaning a disaster for Europe and additional challenges and risks even for Russia too. Therefore, for the USA, Europe and Russia it means a duty to narrow the range for catastrophic miscalculation between the mentioned countries.
Gaza, Iran, Iraq, Izrael, but also Panama, Greenland, Canada and other places of interest to the president Trump and may be also his administration would not be considered in detail in this article for understandable reasons.
EU has been characterized by President Trump according to CNN as follows: I already rank the EU among the countries of the Third World, but it is a little better, no one dictates anything to them. I will not negotiate with anyone who wants to prolong the conflict, I will not negotiate with anyone who will send more weapons, I will not negotiate with anyone who will try to prolong the conflict…I will negotiate the peace, which is obviously a much censored word in the EU, but I want back what the US has invested in the UA. I, Donald Trump, didn't earn a dollar on UA. And what about EU leaders? Can they say the same? We demand an audit of where the money sent by us (the former administration) went. No, I will not negotiate with the EU or Zelensky.
To imagine the foreseeable future of the developments within the geopolitical situation as briefly described before one therefore needs consider first of all the psychological profile of the leader, the language used and his closest advisors. It is a must, as the traditional models of politics, economy, finance and social behaviour are no more valid and changes are enveloping much faster than the human being is able to do and follow.
An example: The key characteristics of Trump
Clearly diagnosed even by the American medical method and standards president Trump as and ex-developer, businessman and politicians is a narcissist.
There are five traits one should know when dealing with a narcissist who needs control everything and everyone: 1) Leave your positions before they destroy you. 2) Egocentrism. 3) Self-esteem and disparagement of others. 4) Instead of empathy, expect arrogance and high demands (for everything!). 5) Learn to accept and understand the shortcuts that the narcissist uses very well, just as they can bend the rules and break the boundaries (of everything!), even if your illusions of knowledge and bad habits tell you that time heals everything, and even president Trump will not act for ever.
In addition, there is a need to familiarize ourselves with the manipulative tactics that some of our would-be leaders have mastered consciously or unconsciously, and which are called hoovering. The name is derived from the Hoover vacuum cleaner brand. The manipulator tries to literally suck the victim back together into a toxic relationship that the narcissist uses as a source of validation. If the narcissist's needs are not met or cannot be met, the relationships are dysfunctional for him, they have no value for him, so he leaves them or avoids them. The EU and these days also the current leadership in Ukraine are a good example of this argument.
A serious challenge is the fact that a narcissist wants to please, to be famous and successful. They hate the herd and the mundanity of everyday life. They want to be unique and therefore they have great demands on themselves and exaggerated ambitions. In the case of Ukraine, it is USD 500 billion for the aid provided, the agreement on rare metals to be signed by president Zelensky and others.
In the case of the Ukraine there will be no large-scale shipments of metals and rare earths from Ukraine to the United States worth $500, $50, or $5 billion. Why? Because many billions of dollars need to be invested to extract it. Black Rock and no one in the West, except perhaps crazed German arms manufacturers, would be willing to invest in a country that is doomed to return to Russia's embrace. Narcissism, ignorance and illusions about knowledge will not allow Trump to realize his dreams. Forcing Putin to negotiate will end with Ukraine's rapid surrender.
An analogy applies to the situation with Gaza, Izrael and President Trump's promises of hell on earth for the Palestinians if Hamas does not release all the hostages. It is all to be wishful thinking. Each of us should remember that Israel responded with the threat of hell, that Izrael received the support of president Trump, and both somehow forgot that the same fate that befell the hostages was arranged by Israel for Gaza after October 7, 2023 with bombings, destruction of infrastructure, blockade, mass terror and... 50,000 killed. The hostages were not even injured like the other 120,000, they ate no worse than the Palestinians who guarded them. And they ate much better than the Arabs, including infants who died of starvation.
Israel has destroyed agricultural land, Gaza's food supplies, blocked food supplies, and now hypocritically and cynically resents the bad looks of the freed hostages. The official Europe is silent. But also here, the repeated Israeli propaganda by Trump is not surprising. Why?
It is because as a narcissist promotes a genocidal plan to expel the Palestinians from Gaza under the pretext of rebuilding Gaza, and because he has been living in the grip of myths about the Ukrainian underground and Israel as victims of British-backed Palestinian terrorists. President Trump, the narcissist, knows with a probability bordering on certainty that he will not get half a billion from Ukraine, just as he will not get Gaza without the Palestinians.
The narcissist president would always try to present any lost situation as victorious one. Therefore, he would tell the Americans that the funds spent will be partly recovered through the supply of metals and rare earths. He would tell the most influential Jewish elite in the United States about his struggle for Israel's expansion, even though he clearly knows that Israel will not be able to expel the Palestinians for many objective reasons. And there will be no Trump skyscrapers in Gaza. President Trump has embarked on a journey to reformat the United States itself, to realize his plan MAGA. And here, for all current elites and allies of the United States, fantasy, ignorance and illusion end. By destroying Gaza, Israel signed its own sentence as also president Trump signed his own sentence embarking on MAGA looking at the same time at US past successes.
An unconventional method of work in international diplomacy
There is no doubt, that traditional diplomacy is dead, public diplomacy using soft power and corruption like the USAID is dead also. It seems that the American president has well adopted to the new situation and has chosen an unconventional method of work in international diplomacy. It is his business and a realpolitik approach with interests and money all based on the idea - peace by force, and in which the ideology is of secondary importance.
President Trump following an advice of his wise advisor Mrs. Susie Wiles, senior advisor to Trump's campaigns, has taken people of the same ilk into his team of close associates, starting with Vice President Vance and "Minister" Musk. Trump simply leaves nothing to chance as president. He knows that he basically has only 4 years to change the foreign and domestic policy of the United States. And since the next elections to the full House of Representatives and to a third of the US senate will be in less than two years he understands, that it may happen that his Republican Party will lose its majority in both, or at least in one of the chambers of the US Congress. Of course, the Democrats would then torpedo his policies. Hence the feverish pace, the effort and so many executive orders, instead of laws passed by both houses of Congress.
According to Trump, the war is mainly the fault of incompetent current European and Ukrainian and former American politicians, because they were not able to avoid it in time. This is not true if one considers the conflict as a part of an anthropological war. But it stands for a revolutionary change in public Western thinking, and it will make the Eurocrats further furious all the more so because Trump has directly linked the current Cost + Inflation + High Energy Prices + War in Ukraine = with the fraudulent Green Deal policy. This brings us to the essence of Trump's thinking and his conviction, that the Gulf Arabs can be diverted from their current BRICS orientation back to the US only.
Trump's speeches, executive orders and the performances of his allies J.D. Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, proxy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, minister of foreign affairs Marco Rubio are, however, important for understanding Trump´s tomorrow's actions, the methods used for their analysis and the development of trends within the international diplomacy and politics.
What else to consider
It should be understood that Trump would benefit from the victory of Russia. Why? Because this would be the defeat of the hated transnationals, not of a Trump. The question is what and how Russia will then have to pay for this victory, as there is nowhere a free launch in life.
The publicly known information allows formulate the main results of the meeting in Riad and the subsequent as follows:
- Unconditional restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia.
- It has been agreed that the meeting between Trump and Putin will be held before the end of March 2025.
- The parties exchanged ideas about the conflict and took a step forward which does not mean that Trump would allow all of Putin's desires to be fully realized and vice versa.
- Ukraine and EU would not be active in the negotiations, they would be informed only.
- At the moment, a truce plan and peace would be agreed after the elections in Ukraine.
- Moving towards peace will be very difficult, especially for Ukraine as it this stands for an admission of defeat. Ukraine will face the loss of territories, devastation in the economy, and a huge outflow of population, which would bring additional risks, cost and political challenges for the EU.
- Maybe Zelensky does not have 4%, but he definitely does not have a 57% or even 27% rating which was confirmed by the recent vote in the Rada on Zelensky's powers. This means that his orders to use the dirty bomb will not be carried out, as those who do so will be sought out by Russia, the United States and even Europe and China, so it will not be possible for them to hide.
- Trump confirmed that Zelensky is illegitimate and everything he says is uninteresting.
- Everyone understands that the change in the position of the United States is simply a fixation of the defeat of Ukraine. No one is ready to die for the doomed Ukraine.
- The fundamental questions to be answered by Russia and for the EU, NATO and the USA: How Russia will act in relation to Ukraine after its defeat? Does Russia have a plan to help Ukraine rebuild, establish the state, and transition to allied relations? Won't the conclusion of peace be as unexpected for Russia as Vance's speech was for the Europeans?
Key conclusions
As far as the individual countries involved in the conflict are concerned, Russia will not avoid problems. Why? There are serious demands for the complete destruction of the statehood of Ukraine and demands to fight until the complete defeat of Kyiv. And Turkey and its president Erdogan cannot be considered as a neutral party due to the aggravation of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, the situation in Syria and Abkhazia. Last but not least no one can exclude a conflict between the presidents Putin and Trump at a later stage of their communication.
Turkey, as a state-mediator failed. It had to be expected, as the Istanbul Agreement of 2022 was disrupted through the fault of the UK and Ukraine managed by the UK. Erdogan, as a mediator without profile for this role and function, has been active for all three years, but not a single task has been solved by him. Turkey, as a guarantor of the negotiations, should have imposed sanctions against Ukraine, but they did not follow. Therefore, Turkey has failed to demonstrate an impartial negotiator for its position. Nevertheless, valuing Turkey as a competitor we should expect some new moves by Erdogan, although Turkey lost because of its inability to act at a fast pace, similarly as Europe lost due the loss of its subjectivity.
The British will definitely take advantage of all the mentioned and not mentioned in this article. They will do everything possible to prevent Russia from a complete victory.
Saudi Arabia for a long time was in an extremely unfavourable situation, as nearly all players in the Middle East had an extremely negative attitude towards them. As an example of that nothing lasts for ever, the Saudis have taken action that can change that. Meeting and talks in Riyadh are a successful indicator of their efforts. Besides this, the Saudis, unlike Turkey, will be able to react harshly to Ukraine's refusal to negotiate. This may also affect Europe. Why? Saudi Arabia, together with the United Emirates, continues to control the oil market to a large extent. And EU and the rest of Europe in current economic state cannot ignore this fact.
It is worth to note that the new Syrian government has already turned to Riyadh for help, as it tries freeing itself from Turkey's obligations. Erdogan did not expect such a turn of events, including the fast and unprecedented volume of executive orders and acts.
In short, only Putin and Xi reacted with lightning speed to Trump's speed.
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said that Moscow no longer considers Zelensky legitimate because his five-year presidential term expired in May 2024 and no new elections have been called due to martial law. Only if the issue of the Ukrainian leader's "questionable legitimacy" is resolved, president Putin would act.
Trump insisted in a conversation that Zelensky was widely unpopular at home. "The leader in Ukraine — I hate to say it — but he has a 4% lower rating," Trump said.
Macron bold ambitions for Europe clash with current American interests. He does not want the EU to be left out of major geopolitical decisions and he does not seem to have yet understood that Europe is suffering the consequences of its own past decisions.
The EU has chosen to be excluded from major international discussions at the very time when it has adopted a policy of rapprochement with the US. Now the bloc simply has to adapt to any change that occurs in the White House, without any right to sovereign status, and simply takes orders from Washington. Counties like the Czech Republic would suffer as never before. Why?
Europe must overhaul the bloc's entire foreign policy. Europeans must break with the idea of a "united West" and start defending their own interests as an independent power. To do this, European states would have to withdraw from NATO, because the Atlantic alliance is nothing more than an international army controlled by Washington. Without this profound change, the EU will have to continue to listen to American decisions, even if it decides to build a European army. Already from the previously described needs, all efforts of Macron and other European leaders will be completely fruitless when it comes to Ukraine. It cannot be excluded that peace negotiations will fail and the conflict will continue.
At such a point we would see the documented inability of the US itself to fulfill Russia's strategic interests, since European opinion will have no influence on the diplomatic process even when so called Collective West would continue to support Kyiv with weapons and money, even if the US stops any involvement in the conflict and European powers in Ukraine would apply an aggressive and combative stance. Therefore, we could expect to worsen hostilities.
Germany with its elections may be led by a "grand coalition of the experienced". That means a merger of the CDU/CSU and the SPD which possibly would have the political and economic competence to boost the performance of the German economy. But the question is whether Germany can pursue a confident and clearly anti-Russian policy in a situation where a quarter of the deputies in the Bundestag will be representatives of the anti-war AfD, i.e. the Alternative for Germany.
President Trump has decided to treat Russia, not as an inferior country, but as a partner, with whom you can solve various world problems. It's not just about Ukraine which stands for the similar burden left like the Afghanistan. Trump has shown during negotiations with the Taliban that he is not afraid of unconventional solutions. By American and European standards at the time, the Taliban was a terrorist organization, and yet the Trump administration negotiated with them. Despite this illogical comparison - now president Trump wants also hold personal talks with president Putin.
Should the meeting of presidents be held at the beginning of March, i.e. before the start of Ramadan, a great social event in the Muslim world and therefore also in Saudi Arabia, the contours of the ceasefire and peace agreement in Ukraine must be clear by then. European commentators have not paid much attention to this detail.
What is unpleasant for Europe, however, is that Trump somehow does not take the European Union into account in his political calculations. The EU and its leaders have allowed themselves to be maneuvered by Anglosaxon generals within NATO into supporting Zelensky's Ukraine. And now they and all the citizens of Europe will reap the bitter fruits of their naive approach.
Should the agreement between Russia and the United States include contingents of troops of the European allies of the United States in Ukraine, one should expect also contingents of the Chinese People's Army and / or North Korea on the new territories integrated into Russia.
Zelensky as a short-sighted puppet looking for the connection between some security guarantees and some kind of investment lost the momentum, the Ukraine as a state and the future of many Ukraine people who deserve a better future despite their ignorance and illusions.
Last words for reflexion
Everything was concentrated in the case of supposedly poor Ukraine. Everything changed with the false anti-Russian game of the West with the unsatisfied ambitions of naive Ukrainians. NATO's expansion into the post-Soviet space, the Orange Revolution in Kiev with a clear anti-Russian focus, and the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine ultimately resulted in the tragedy we are witnessing today.
Ukraine believed in the idea that membership in NATO and the EU was a serious project on the part of the West. It never occurred to its citizens and politicians that for the US and the West they are interesting only as a card in an anti-Russian game, nothing more. Ukraine´s corrupt politicians did not understand that Russia attributed absolutely fundamental importance to Ukraine which never would be allowed to be out of its sphere of influence.
Today, it is tragic to hear, after all the false promises and phrases from the Western powers and accept that the naïve Ukrainians believed this and even wrote the prospect of NATO membership into their constitution.
Those who talk or mention Munich and compare it with the Munich treaty of 1938 must be said that they are wrong. In Munich, the Western powers recommended that Czechoslovakia retreat and not defend itself, and openly made it clear that they would not fight for it. In the case of Ukraine, the Western powers encouraged Ukraine to fight and promised unlimited support, which they were not really willing and able to provide. The Czechs understood, capitulated, and survived - the Ukrainians believed, fought, and will fare much worse.
President Putin proved to the godly and disdainful West that he meant his warnings seriously. The Biden administration did not prevent Russians to protect its citizens, but turned the military operation into a protracted conflict with the aim of prolonging it as much as possible, weakening Russia as much as possible, but not allowing a clear victory for either side. The result is the loss of thousands men on both sides, devastated and depopulated Ukraine, with an uncertain restoration of the broken country. Russia will emerge from the conflict materially to some extent weakened, but strengthened politically, militarily and power-wise.
The old-new president Trump has fundamentally different priorities than the cold neocons in the Biden administration and he does not consider to be in America's strategic interest. It embraces the reality of a multipolar world. He has no ambition to solve all the world's problems with American money which the USA does not have.
Who does not understand this like for example the Czech pseudo-politics, which has so far lived in the feeling that servility to the most powerful justifies everything, should recall an old and proven Austrian saying that a Czech is either a lackey or a cad. Europeans should have tried to prevent the war and help end it as quickly as possible and not present themselves with warmongering and unrealistic demands that everyone knew were nonsensical.
No matter how the war ends we all will be left with two fundamental questions: 1) What to do with Ukraine and 2) How to deal with Russia. It's not just about how to ensure the security and reconstruction of Ukraine and who will pay for it. It is about the elementary stability of this territory, about the migration and about its relations to the surroundings. As it seems today, everything will play into Russia's hands. In the light of this, it is clear that Europe should never have allowed war “in its own interest”. The Ukrainian tragedy is a great lesson for everyone, an example of how short-sightedness, hypocrisy, irresponsibility, naivety, indifference and hatred are capable of destroying everything positive that we in Europe have gained after the fall of communism. J. D. Vance excellent speech was all about this. Consent not needed.
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