РУССКИЙ
11:51 10.01.2025 •
More and more Russian flags on the streets of African cities.
Photo: nouvellesplus.com
As a scholar of African security and politics, I research conflicts, governance, terrorism and development on the continent. At the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, I analysed African countries’ position on the war and explained why several chose to be “neutral” and not take sides on the conflict. I argued that many African countries did not want to get involved in what was seen as a proxy war between the US and Russia, writes Olayinka Ajala, a senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Leeds Beckett University.
Although the US and European countries denied it was a proxy war, the director of the CIA under Barack Obama admitted, “It’s a proxy war with Russia whether we say so or not.” This view was shared by several countries in Africa which were determined to remain neutral in order not to be drawn into the conflict.
With the involvement of Ukraine in the war in Sudan and now in Mali, it looks like African countries are in fact getting drawn in, and on their own territory.
A new proxy war will have severe implications for the region and continent more broadly. The security dynamics in Africa are very complicated, with issues such as ethnicity, religion, inequality, topography and poverty adding to the fragility.
Further pointers to a proxy war between the US and Ukraine on the one hand and Russia on the other on African territory were laid bare when a representative of Ukraine’s security service, Andriy Yusov, stated on television that Ukraine “enabled” the attack on the Malian army and Wagner.
The ambassador of Ukraine to Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia, Yurii Pyvovarov, has also been accused by the government of Senegal of providing “unequivocal and unqualified support for the terrorist attack” in Mali.
In response, Mali and Niger have severed diplomatic relationships with Ukraine. Senegal also summoned the Ukrainian ambassador. The West African economic grouping ECOWAS declared its “firm disapproval and firm condemnation of any outside interference in the region.”
This is a major setback for Ukraine in the region.
Although Ukraine has denied supporting terrorist groups in the region, its involvement in the death of Malian soldiers has attracted condemnation.
Russia has already seized the attack to label Ukraine an enemy of Africa. Russia accused Ukraine of opening a “second front” in Africa and supporting terrorist groups.
Narratives about the role of Ukraine in Mali would only weaken its influence in Africa. This is because several countries on the continent are fragile and terrorism is a serious problem.
Since the recent coups in the West African region within the last four years, Russia has positioned itself as an alternative to Western influence there. It is benefiting from the chaos in the region by quickly filling the gap left by France and its allies in the Sahel.
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