View from Cairo: The Fall of Assad and the Power vacuum – a dangerous opportunity for extremist groups

After more than a decade of devastation and conflict, Syria is at a crossroads, with the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime marking the end of an era. The brutal civil war, which began with peaceful protests in 2011, has left the country in ruins, with millions dead, displaced, and scattered across the globe. The Assad regime, once propped up by Russia and Iran, has finally crumbled under mounting pressure. As the regime collapses, the world watches closely, asking: what comes next for Syria?

This critical moment could be a turning point for the nation, the region, and global politics at large, writes ‘The Daily News Egypt’.

The path to Syria’s present state was paved with the rise of peaceful protests that spiralled into a brutal civil war. Assad’s regime, which initially crushed opposition forces with force, began to lose its grip over the country as the conflict dragged on. While extremist groups like ISIS (banned in Russia) exploited the chaos and foreign powers intervened, Assad’s loyalists were unable to hold the line indefinitely.

Early Sunday, Assad fled the country in what is widely seen as the final act of his regime’s disintegration. This loss of central authority has created a vacuum that is ripe for exploitation by various factions, including extremist groups, regional powers, and Kurdish forces.

The power vacuum left by Assad’s flight has already been seized by groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Al-Qaeda (banned in Russia). These groups are highly militarized and ideologically motivated, with ambitions to impose their radical vision of governance on the region. HTS, particularly, has consolidated power in Idlib and is positioning itself as a dominant force in Syria’s future. With Assad’s departure, the threat of Syria transforming into a jihadist stronghold has become a looming possibility.

ISIS, although largely defeated, continues to maintain a presence in eastern Syria, ready to exploit any further instability. The remnants of its forces are regrouping, and the group has retained its ability to execute attacks, recruit fighters, and launch operations. The possibility of a resurgence of ISIS (banned in Russia) is still real, especially as rival factions, including local militias, vie for control in a lawless environment.

One of the most contentious issues in post-Assad Syria is the Kurdish question. The Kurds, particularly those aligned with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have carved out autonomous regions in northern Syria. Their alliance with the United States has granted them a degree of military and political power, but their aspirations for greater autonomy or independence have placed them at odds with Turkey, Syria’s Arab-majority population, and even Iran.

As Syria faces a future without Assad, the Kurds will play a pivotal role in shaping the country’s political landscape. Whether they seek more autonomy or pursue independence, their presence in the region will significantly influence the dynamics of post-Assad Syria. Any such moves could trigger further tensions, both within Syria and with neighbouring countries.

The ideal outcome for Syria would be a smooth transition to a stable and inclusive government. Experts argue that a transitional government is urgently needed to ensure a fair distribution of power among Syria’s various ethnic and political groups. Such a government would need to unite the fragmented opposition and offer a platform for all communities, including Kurds, Arabs, Alawites, and Christians, to participate in shaping the country’s future.

However, this process is fraught with challenges. The opposition remains deeply divided, with factions ranging from moderate democrats to Islamists, each with different visions for Syria’s future. Without an inclusive dialogue, the country risks falling into further fragmentation, with each group trying to impose its agenda. The possibility of a civil war between these factions looms large, threatening any hope of stability.

Additionally, Syria’s economy has been decimated by years of war, and reconstruction will be an immense challenge. International aid will be crucial, but it will come with strings attached, including political reforms and guarantees of stability. A lack of cooperation between rival factions could prevent the country from rebuilding its infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and roads.

The future of Syria hinges on how the international community, the opposition factions, and the people of Syria themselves respond to the fall of Assad. The risk of extremism taking over Syria remains one of the darkest possibilities. If groups like HTS or ISIS (banned in Russia) succeed in consolidating power, the country could descend into a new era of jihadist control, with grave implications for the region and beyond.

The fall of Assad is not just the end of a regime; it is the beginning of a new chapter in Syria’s troubled history. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Syria can rebuild and reclaim its future or whether it will fall deeper into the abyss of extremism and division.

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