View from Delhi: Netanyahu entraps Trump in a quagmire

Photo: Al Jazeera

There is no question that at the talks with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Tuesday, the visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pulled off by far the biggest success story of his tumultuous 17 years in power as the longest-serving prime minister of his country by mooting the daring proposition that a long-term solution for Gaza Strip lies in the takeover of that entire area by the US and transforming it as the “Riviera of the Middle East” (Trump’s words,) writes M.K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Ambassador and prominent international observer.

From what has emerged at the White House press conference on Tuesday, the US which has no history of nation-building is embarking on an undertaking that is both daunting in scope and impossible to achieve. Never mind, Netanyahu’s triumphalist look standing beside Trump exuded a measure of confidence that he has got a deal with Trump.

The deal is pivoted on the controversial idea of emptying Gaza Strip of its population and resettling the 1.8 million Palestinian inhabitants in certain unspecified countries and the reconstruction of the vacant land, which is roughly the same land area as Las Vegas or twice the size of Washington, DC. Gaza’s coastline is 40 km long and Trump hopes to transform it into a watering hole for the rich and the famous, which will mean lots of menial jobs in the services sector for Palestinians eventually. 

Trump used the expression “take over” of Gaza Strip. He didn’t elaborate. Trump and his special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff are two master-builders and they visualise the seamless potential of killing many birds with a single shot — first and foremost, strengthening Israel’s security through the ethnic cleansing and resettlement in Gaza; two, restoration of Israel’s regional dominance in the region in a medium and long term perspective; three, a solution to the intractable Palestinian problem; four,  rendering obsolete the various outlandish ideas like “two-state solution”; five, burial of the very notion of a Palestinian state; six, Israel’s regional integration through Abraham Accords; and, above all, massive business spin-off for American companies for decades to come out of the development of the “Riviera of the Middle East”.

The US strategy is quintessentially a continuation of what Trump pursued in his first term with a hands-on involvement in the West Asian region and the rebooting of its mediatory role influence in the region that culminated in the signing of the Abraham Accords between Israel and a clutch of Arab oligarchies. This time around, the US role will be of a full-fledged protagonist, which may involve a long-term military presence in the Levant as well. Trump has already indicated that he’s in no hurry to pull out the US troops from Syria. In Beirut, the US is constructing one of its biggest embassies worldwide.

Trump spoke harshly about Iran and hinted at his readiness to use military means, if need be, to ensure Tehran will not develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances. Trump doubled down on the “maximum pressure” strategy to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero. On the other hand, he left the door open for negotiations — provided Iran is amenable to the American conditions. Trump’s thinking is anchored on the belief that the Israeli military operations against Hamas and Hezbollah and the regime change in Syria have significantly weakened Iran’s capacity to flex its muscles.

Trump commended Saudi Arabia’s positive role and anticipated its recognition of Israel as a distinct possibility. Trump claimed that several regional states are also willing to get on board the Abraham Accords.

Quite obviously, these are early days. Netanyahu disclosed that Trump will be consulting his aides as to how to go about developing the concept. Meanwhile, he vaguely signalled that he may not undermine the 3-stage plan for Gaza ceasefire, although the degradation of Hamas will remain a work in progress.

Saudi Arabia has reacted sharply that it would not establish ties with Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state, stressing that its position over this issue is “firm, non-negotiable and unshakeable.” The Saudi statement said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has underlined the Kingdom’s position in “a clear and explicit manner that does not allow for any interpretation under any circumstances.”

The unusually lengthy Saudi statement said Crown Prince declared that Saudi Arabia “will not cease its tireless work to ensure the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. The Kingdom will not form diplomatic relations with Israel without this.”

The statement reiterated the Kingdom’s “categorical rejection of the violation of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people by Israel’s settlement, annexation and displacement policies.” It added, “The international community has a duty today to ease the deep humanitarian crisis that the Palestinian people are enduring. The people will continue to cling on to their land and their determination will not be shaken.”

Furthermore, the statement stressed, “Permanent and just peace cannot be achieved without the Palestinian people receiving their legitimate rights in line with international resolutions and this issue has been clearly stipulated to the previous and current American administration.”

There has been an avalanche of criticism worldwide. Prima facie, Netanyahu lured Trump into a trap by enticing him with a seductive scenario of massive lucrative business in Gaza’s reconstruction. Trump’s imagination is running riot, completely disconnected from ground realities. Such naïveté is fraught with real danger of blowing up on his face sooner rather than later and turn into an albatross for his presidency. This has all the making of a quagmire for the Trump administration.

Netanyahu is the winner here. Actually, the camera caught him smirking more than once while Trump was holding forth on his dream project of the “Riviera of the Middle East”.

YouTube screenshot

Netanyahu can claim, back home in Tel Aviv, that ‘Trump has his back.’

The arch survivor, probably gets another lease of life in the shark-infested waters of Israeli politics.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted in an interview last week that much as the ceasefire in Gaza is important, “the real challenge here is going to be what happens when the ceasefire period expires. Who’s going to govern Gaza? Who’s going to rebuild Gaza? Who’s going to be in charge of Gaza?” Good questions.

Rubio feels that “if the people who are in charge of Gaza are the same guys that created October 7th, then we still have the same problem there.” Why not leave that choice to Gaza’s voters to elect their rulers? 

Rubio was sanguine about Lebanon where the new government “hopefully will become more powerful than Hizballah… and there’s a ceasefire that was extended there that ultimately will lead to that.” On Syria, Rubio said that although the rulers in Damascus are “not guys that would necessarily pass an FBI background check, per se,.. if there is an opportunity in Syria to create a more stable place than what we’ve had historically, especially under Assad,.. we need to pursue that opportunity and see where that leads.”

Rubio is cautiously optimistic. As he put it, “if you have a region in which you have a more stable Syria, a more stable Lebanon, where Hizballah is not able to do the things it does on behalf of Iran, a weakened Iran who has now lost all these proxies, it now opens the door to things like a deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which would change the dynamic of the region, and then ultimately not make easy but make easier resolving some of these challenges that we face with the Palestinian question and in particular with the Gaza question. So there’s a lot of work to be done there. None of it is certain. All of it is hard. But real opportunities that we couldn’t have even imagined 90 days ago.”

The Israeli media, especially Hebrew press, openly admits that all that Israel has achieved through the horrific killings and wanton destruction of Gaza is that Yahya Sinwar has been replaced by his brother Mohammed Sinwar. As hundreds of thousands Palestinians stream back into northern Gaza in the wake of the ceasefire, Hamas flags are seen everywhere; Hamas cadres are in charge flaunting weapons.

Israel’s female soldiers who have been released are praising their Hamas captors to the heavens for their hospitality and Muslim culture which treats a woman “like a queen.” Succinctly put, the entire Israeli narrative has been blown to smithereens.

But Netanyahu would have none of it. His fixation is how to retain the support of the hardliners in his government lest his coalition unravels and he loses immunity from prosecution and ends up in jail. He is focused on short term expediency but will go his own way in the long term execution of Greater Israel plan.

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