US-Indian talks: Biden, Blinken, Jaishankar and Modi on the screen.
Photo: AP
The last acts of the Biden administration aimed at Russian oil may affect India too. They can constrain the thriving India-Russia ties once Donald Trump takes office, writes M.K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Ambassador and prominent international observer.
The 88-year old South Indian Education Society is one of the oldest educational societies in Mumbai and a major centre of higher learning in India’s financial capital with emphasis on professional institutions. Although the society does not have a footprint in strategic studies, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar chose that forum to make certain remarks regarding the government’s foreign policy orientation.
The EAM’s remarks can be succinctly captured on the following lines: although India has established itself as an independent power on the global stage, it continues to encounter “constraints and limitations” in the exercise of its autonomy; a discourse at the national level is needed to overcome them. Basically, this concerns India’s identity and vision. And at the very core of it lies the government’s determination not to “allow ourselves to be defined by others”.
Clearly, greater assertion of our sense of independence inevitably involves taking a stance different from the dominant thinking of the day on occasions and is predicated on the ability to analyse problems and find solutions for ourselves. The crux of the matter is, Jaishankar underscored, “Independence should also never be confused for neutrality. We will do what is right in our national interest and for global good, without being intimidated to conform. In the final analysis, Bharat can never permit others to have a veto on our choices.”
In statecraft, such diplomatic pronouncements of profound consequence are, by their very nature and cutting edge, almost always contextual. No doubt, in the years after conflict erupted in Ukraine, India has come under immense Western pressure to “conform”. The government is cognisant that the choppy waters of international diplomacy are only going to become more turbulent, as multipolarity begins to gain traction and the Western dominance that characterised the ebb and flow of history through the past five centuries comes under serious challenge for the first time.
Meanwhile, if the Washington Post report on Tuesday is true—and it’s likely to be credible given the paper’s affiliation with the American Deep State—the Biden administration, in its remaining days in power, is planning to impose large-scale sanctions on the Russian energy sector and the “dark fleet” that ferries its oil to the world markets. The newspaper claimed that this move is intended both “as a parting blow in its (Washington’s) financial war against Vladimir Putin” as well as intended to “give the incoming team of president-elect Donald Trump more leverage in its negotiations with Putin over ending Russia’s war with Ukraine”.
According to S&P Global, Russia earned roughly $100 billion from energy sales last year. The expert opinion is that once the new sanctions bite, there would be a double-digit decline in Russia’s export revenue over a period of six to 12 months. A senior US official has been cited as rationalising the entire effort as necessary to ensure that Ukraine is in the “best possible position” to defend itself and negotiate peace with Russia on “just” terms. Indeed, the stakes are very high in the titanic struggle for global hegemony.
It is entirely conceivable the new financial sanctions against Russian oil exports may also target India directly or indirectly, since India is a major buyer of Russian oil. Reliance Industries and Russia’s state oil firm Rosneft recently reached a 10-year agreement worth roughly $13 billion a year at current prices, whereby the Russian giant will supply nearly 500,000 barrels of crude of various grades per day in what has been billed by Reuters as “the biggest oil supply deal” ever between India and Russia.
Make no mistake, Jaishankar’s remarks, which came on the eve of his unscheduled six-day visit to the US to interact with the incoming Trump team, can be put in proper perspective. The Biden administration, as it relinquishes power, aims to put a knife into the heart of the flourishing India-Russia relationship, which it had opposed tooth and tail all along.
The calculation of the Biden White House is that the new sanctions regime will also put a spoke in the wheel of Delhi’s dealings with the incoming Trump administration as well as complicate whatever prospect remain for an improvement in Russian-American relations under Trump’s watch, which is a crucial requisite for settlement in Ukraine. The combination of circumstances is fraught with uncertainties. A formidable diplomatic and political challenge lies ahead for the government.
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