View from Delhi: Trump as a ‘lone wolf’

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On Tuesday, at a press conference at his Florida mansion, President-elect Donald Trump took his gloves off. Trump tore into Biden and his team (“sick groups of people”) and signalled he’s had enough of their so-called “transfer of power,” notes M.K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Ambassador and prominent international observer. 

Trump is returning to the White House in an angry, embittered mood. At the press conference, he targeted the FBI and referred to his deliberate choice of Kash Patel as FBI director. Trump is obsessed with the FBI raid on his residence in Florida purportedly searching for top secret documents that jeopardised national security, including in his wife’s bedroom furniture for undergarments! No doubt, retribution is at hand.

On the policy front, Trump made it abundantly clear that he intends to discard Biden’s energy/environment/climate change policies as well as on immigration.

However, what hogs the media headlines is Trump’s explosive remarks on the US taking control of Panama Canal and Greenland with military action, if need be. In reply to a direct question whether he would rule out using “military or economic coercion,” Trump responded, “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two, but I can say this: We need them for economic security.”

He warned that if Denmark resisted the US takeover of Greenland (an autonomous territory of Denmark), he will impose steep tariffs.

Trump disclosed that he intends to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, “which has a beautiful ring. That covers a lot of territory, the Gulf of America — what a beautiful name. And it’s appropriate.”

But what takes the breath away is that his past remarks about Canada joining the US as its 51st state have become increasingly serious. Trump threatened Canada with “economic force” and pointed finger at the US’ bilateral trade deficit. “Why are we supporting a country $200 billion plus a year,” he asked. 

Meanwhile, talking about NATO, Trump proposed that the contribution by the alliance’s member countries should be scaled up to 5% of GDP on defence instead of the existing 2% spending milestone. He warned that the US will not protect “delinquents”.

Other points of interest are:

Trump eschewed any criticism of Russia in the Ukraine war, and instead alluded to the genesis of the conflict being NATO’s  eastward expansion toward Russian borders, and remarked at one point, “I could understand their (Russian) feelings in the matter.”

Trump was evasive about current US deployment in Syria, saying it’s a matter of “military strategy.” Equally, he pinned hopes on Turkish President Recep Erdogan showing restraint in attacking the Kurds (who are aligned with the US in Syria).

Trump threatened Hamas with dire consequences unless all hostages are released before his inaugural on Jan. 20. (“If those hostages aren’t back… by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East — and it will not be good for Hamas and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone. All hell will break out. I don’t have to say more anymore, but that’s what it is.”)

Trump avoided any critical remarks regarding China or Iran. 

Europeans who are already nervous about the Trump presidency will see in the remarks a certain detachment. He was business-like on NATO and faulted the alliance’s reckless expansion to Russia’s doorstep. He counts on cutting a deal with President Putin. The European Union has cause to worry.

Panama Canal, Greenland, Canada — Trump’s prioritisation of US control of Western Hemisphere (and the hugely strategic Barents Sea) to perpetuate its hegemonic clout as global power is self-evident. At no point he referred to the Indo-Pacific. 

That said, the really stunning thing is that both Canada and Denmark are founding members of NATO, but Trump couldn’t care less. He is planning to annex one member country and threatening the other’s  territorial integrity. And they cannot even invoke Article V of the NATO Charter in self-defence.

On the other hand, the impossibility of getting NATO countries to accept his demand for a whopping 150% hike in the contributions to the alliance’s budget at such a juncture when their economies are in crisis may also give him the perfect excuse to neglect NATO — effectively consigning the archaic alliance to oblivion.

In fact, in the first circle of his foreign-policy strategy — the Arctic region, Western Hemisphere and the Middle East — Trump has no use of NATO. In that enterprise, he goes alone — a lone wolf. 

No doubt, the Greater America project is Trump’s consuming passion and it is integral to his MAGA movement (“Make America Great Again”). His repudiation of Biden’s 11th hour move to block drilling America’s coastal oil in a vast space of 625 million acres of the US ocean is expected to make America by far the biggest oil producing country on the planet.

At the same time, the Greater America project is a 21st century Munroe Doctrine whose security and economic implications for China and Russia are apparent, although they will be hard-pressed to challenge it. Trump has buried the “rules-based order.”

Evidently, Trump has no interest in multipolarity or multi alignment — concepts that foreign policy wonks are animatedly discussing to define a new world order. Associated Press called this whole territorial annexation menu “a new imperialist agenda,” while for the CNN, it signified a “push for American expansionism” and “imperialistic land grabs.”

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