View from India: Syria comes in from the cold

With great prescience, late Henry Kissinger had once said, “You can’t make war in the Middle East without Egypt, and you can’t make peace without Syria.” The adage remains true even today.

Syria has been an astute practitioner of diplomacy in its statecraft, which was not surprising given its origin as a modern state out of the debris of the Ottoman Empire, its geography, plural society and tough neighbourhood, writes M.K. Bhadrakumar, Indian Ambassador and prominent international observer.

Suffice to say, there is nothing surprising that President Donald Trump sees immense potential in Syria’s interim president Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa as an interlocutor, while resetting his compass for a New Middle East. Trump’s seemingly blasé attitude came out in a social media post Monday night, when he wrote that he and Sharaa “discussed all the intricacies of PEACE in the Middle East, of which he is a major advocate.”

Trump is a rare western leader who closely follows Russia’s footfalls with a healthy respect. He couldn’t have missed the quiet confidence with which President Vladimir Putin is restructuring Russia’s interactions with Damascus — and is even exploring a reformed Moscow-Damascus-Tehran triangle as a pillar of regional stability.

In fact, immediately after Sharaa’s meeting with Putin in the Kremlin in October, Alexander Lavrentyev, presidential envoy to the Middle East, visited Tehran to discuss regional security, Syria’s territorial integrity, and further coordination with the Russian delegation. Russia’s Ambassador to Tehran Alexei Dedov also disclosed that Russia and Iran hold regular consultations on the Syrian issue and hold ‘similar positions on key aspects of resolving the crisis’.

Be that as it may, the Russian-Syrian mutual confidence is reaching a point that Damascus seeks patrols of the southern provinces by Russian military police, which could limit Israeli activity in the border areas. Russia has reportedly conducted its first patrol since the change of power – near Qamishli in northeast Syria, which Turkey regards as its sphere of influence.

However, trust the US security establishment to pressure al-Sharaa over his contacts with Russia.

Inevitably, the US will exploit al-Sharaa’s keenness to foster closer relations with Washington, which is crucial for the lifting of sanctions that opens the pathway for foreign investment and Syria’s reconstruction (which World Bank estimates will cost $216 billion.)

Al-Sharaa’s induction into the US-led counter-terrorist coalition fighting ISIS and al-Qaeda remnants in Syria burnishes his image in the international community. That said, wouldn’t al-Sharaa know about the US’ controversial record vis-a-vis ISIS and al-Qaeda as its geopolitical tools? Most certainly, yes.

Russia has been, is and will be a significant presence in Syria

Such pragmatism becomes al-Sharaa’s trademark, which Moscow understood all along. Al-Sharaa’s younger brother Maher al-Sharaa studied in Russia, graduated from the Burdenko Voronezh State Medical University in 2000, and subsequently worked in Voronezh for many years as an obstetrician-gynaecologist. He is married to a Russian national, Tatiana Zakirova, further cementing Maher’s ties to Moscow.

Maher today holds the key position as Secretary-General of the Presidency in Damascus coordinating directly with the president, drafting decrees, overseeing the implementation of executive decisions, facilitating communication between state institutions, etc. — all in all, playing a strategic role.

However, this is only a part of the story of Russia’s remarkable rebound through the past 10 months since Assad’s fall. If Russia has been, is and will be a significant presence in Syria, it is for a variety of reasons — not only geopolitical. What prompts al-Sharaa to engage with Russia are principally three considerations: first, the pull of Soviet Union’s huge contributions for Syria’s economy and infrastructure, especially in areas like health sector. Russia has a tradition of never interfering in Syria’s internal affairs even while engaged deeply, which is a touchstone for al-Sharaa.

Second, Russia has an excellent record as a provider of security. Syrian defence minister Murhaf Abu Qasra has visited Moscow thrice during the past 4 months, the last time as recently as on October 28 just a week before al-Sharaa’s scheduled meeting with Trump in the White House.

While receiving the minister, Russia’s Defence Minister Andrey Belousov noted, “The fact that we are here again, at the negotiating table, demonstrates that contacts between our political leaders and contacts between our military ministries are truly meaningful, fruitful, and have great potential.”

Al-Sharra is in the ISIS’ (banned in Russia) crosshairs and even otherwise, Syria’s security situation is precarious.

Then, there is the threat from Israel’s ‘land grab’. Trump’s priority is to normalise Syria’s relations with Israel, get Damascus to accept Israel’s occupation of Golan Heights and get al-Sharaa into the Abraham Accords. Prima facie, this is all a bit too much for al-Sharaa to accept. Clearly, continued Russian military presence serves a useful purpose for Damascus.

Third, al-Sharaa seeks to diversify Syria’s external relations. He hopes to reclaim Syria’s legacy of non-alignment and strategic autonomy. Slowly but steadily, China is also engaging with al-Sharaa. The Chinese embassy in Damascus remained open throughout recent instability, while Beijing adopted a cautious, “risk management” approach primarily driven by security concerns and a desire to protect its interests.

The Chinese ambassador to Damascus has held meetings with al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani, where the Syrian side expressed a desire for “strategic partnership” and China’s support for reconstruction.

Beijing seems to accept that al-Sharaa has discarded his jihadi pedigree.

No doubt, the regime change in Damascus was a significant blow to Iran’s regional strategy. Iranian military commanders and personnel, including Quds Force members, were quickly evacuated from Syria as rebel forces advanced on Damascus. All Iranian military bases have since been abandoned.

But there are signs lately of Tehran exploring informal, pragmatic relations with the al-Sharaa government.

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