View from Lebanon: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has created a new phenomenon – the concept of “reverse attrition”

Pic.: The Intercept

An international conflict is one of the tools used by states in their foreign policy to achieve geopolitical interests in the international arena. Confrontational or non-confrontational methods are used to manage it. As in the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, on the one hand, and Western countries led by the United States, on the other. One of such confrontational methods is the "concept of enemy attrition", notes ‘Al Mayadeen’.

This concept states that one or more states undertake a set of various measures and actions, using all available means, to weaken the enemy by exhausting its human, financial and military resources in every way. The main goal is to deprive the enemy of the ability to continue successful military operations and ensure victory over it in the long term. This concept has proven its effectiveness in many international conflicts around the world.

As international conflicts evolve and various methods of managing them appear, new counter-theories have begun to appear in the strategic thinking of political leaders – due to their good understanding of the enemy's thinking and possible reactions – which over time are transformed into strategies and tools. How?

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict was an exception to this "attrition concept". The West planned to weaken Moscow with a range of measures, from unlimited military support and intelligence to Kyiv, to large-scale sanctions against the Russian economy. It believed that the Russian economy would collapse under the pressure, the state would disintegrate and would not be able to continue its strategic rise that began with the rise of Vladimir Putin.

The Russian leadership understood the seriousness of the measures taken by the West and warned of the consequences, but the West, as a result of its miscalculations, fell into a trap set for Russia. This is what can be called "reverse attrition". It is designed to reverse the measures taken by the enemy and make them boomerang against him. We may be faced with the theory of a "non-zero-sum game".

This "reverse attrition" has manifested itself in the large financial losses suffered by the West since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The West has already spent over $170 billion, by the most conservative estimates, on military aid to Ukraine. Western taxpayers, who pay for aid to Kyiv, have become increasingly dissatisfied with the policies of their governments. Their standard of living has fallen against the backdrop of a tenfold increase in inflation and rising energy prices. Some Western banks have been forced to raise interest rates to curb inflation. And this is not counting the losses of Western companies operating in Russia, amounting to millions of dollars.

On the other hand, since the beginning of the special military operation (SMO), the Russians have worked to protect their country's economy from any possible negative consequences, bypassing Western sanctions and mitigating their impact, relying on a wide network of international and regional allies. According to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Russian economy has become the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity, with a share of 3.8% of GDP, behind only China, the United States and India. Thus, Russia has overtaken Japan (3.7%) and Germany (3.4%).

Moscow's military strategy aimed at destroying Ukrainian military infrastructure (weapons depots supplied by the West, military airfields and Ukrainian Armed Forces manpower) has proven effective and has limited the ability of Ukraine to take the initiative at the front.

In conclusion, it can be said that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has created a new phenomenon – the concept of "reverse attrition". This requires political leaders to be highly professional in conflict management, to clearly understand the enemy's way of thinking and to monitor its possible reactions.

In conclusion, it should be noted that the "concept of reverse attrition" may in the future become an academic discipline in various universities, including in the Islamic and Arab world. Professors and students will be able to study this phenomenon and learn lessons, especially in light of fateful milestones that affect their present and future.

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