View from London: New oil sanctions will not stop Russia

Russia has long been preparing for any kind of pressure and has grown adept at evading sanctions, including those targeting its oil sector, UnHerd stresses.

After months of threats, the Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Russia over its ongoing war in Ukraine, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, the country’s two largest oil companies. Announcing the measures, the White House renewed its call for an immediate ceasefire. “Now is the time to stop the killing,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

Russia hawks and Ukraine supporters in the US and Europe hailed the move as a breakthrough, a sign that Washington was finally ready to impose real costs on Moscow and that President Donald Trump was getting tough on Vladimir Putin. Neither claim holds up. The sanctions will likely have only a modest impact on Russia’s economy, and are unlikely to alter the course of the war or bring it to an end. Still, the new measures are significant for two reasons. They reveal how deeply Trump and Putin continue to misunderstand each other — and how difficult it will be to stop the fighting.

As with any sanctions package, the costs of the latest round of economic penalties imposed will depend on enforcement. Here, signs point in Moscow’s favour. For starters, it is not clear how many of Russia’s remaining buyers will adjust their behaviour in response to additional US sanctions. There are reports that India and China plan to back off their (known) purchases of Russian oil, but this may be temporary or partial.

In any case, Russia has long been preparing for this kind of pressure and has grown adept at evading sanctions, including those targeting its oil sector. That’s unlikely to change. Despite the new US measures, Moscow’s customers will keep buying its oil — through the black market or other workarounds.

Even if the sanctions do impose harsh costs on Russia’s economy, this is unlikely to stop Putin from fighting — something Trump himself admitted several months ago. Putin has shown a willingness to withstand significant economic and military costs to secure his stated goals, which will not change, especially in the short term. Ukraine, already short on manpower and weapons, may not be able to hold out that long.

Yet if the new sanctions will not measurably change the trajectory or duration of the conflict in Ukraine, their timing and the White House framing offer a few important insights. Most importantly, Washington and Moscow continue to talk past each other, leaving them far apart when it comes to ending this war.

For Trump, the conflict is mostly about territory. As he said last week, the two sides should simply stop fighting where they are, declare victory, and go home. The demand that accompanied the latest round of sanctions — an immediate ceasefire — has already been ruled out by the Russian side. Instead, Moscow has asked for negotiations along several tracks to work through the political and security issues involved in the conflict. This is not an unreasonable request. Negotiations and fighting can occur at the same time. Continuing to press for a quick and easy ceasefire is plainly unrealistic.

The unfortunate reality is that neither Trump nor Putin can easily back down, stalling the only real hope for ending the war — diplomacy.

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