View from London: The slow death of the Coalition of the willing

Last days of the Coalition of the willing
Photo: Reuters

With Starmer gone and Macron soon to be replaced, a leadership vacuum could leave Europe rudderless, The Telegraph notes.

Sir Keir Starmer bowed out from the world stage with a round of applause from his colleagues and, in a first for a serving British prime minister, France’s highest honour.

Emmanuel Macron led the tribute to Sir Keir’s “historic role” at the meeting of the coalition of the willing, no doubt aware that his days as leader were also numbered.

The two men had ended years of rows between London and Paris over Brexit, vaccines and fish to grasp the leadership of a Europe reeling from Donald Trump’s indifference.

Their diplomatic double act brought together more than 30 countries to support Ukraine and eventually deploy troops to guarantee any ceasefire. Europe’s two nuclear powers are also spearheading plans to de-mine the Strait of Hormuz.

But with Sir Keir gone and Mr Macron unable to fight next year’s presidential elections, there are fears of a leadership vacuum that could leave Europe rudderless.

The domestic stability of candidates who could fill that void, such as Germany’s Friedrich Merz, remains in doubt. Meanwhile, leadership hopefuls who are more sympathetic to Russia, such as Marine Le Pen, wait in the wings and could reshape Europe’s support for Ukraine next year.

Sir Keir decided to step down from front-line politics before he could be ousted by Labour MPs over his poor domestic performances.

Andy Burnham, his successor, is known to have a tighter grasp on the domestic agenda but little foreign policy experience.

Since taking the reins of power, he has sought to reassure allies that they should expect a high level of continuity from Sir Keir when it comes to support for Ukraine and Nato.

To drive home this point, Mr Burnham made Zelensky his first face-to-face meeting with another world leader, when he hosted the Ukrainian president in Portsmouth.

Worries about a “slow death” for the coalition of the willing are much more focused on Mr Macron’s departure from office.

The French president has no choice but to vacate the Élysée Palace after next year’s presidential elections when his second term is over.

But without an obvious continuity candidate waiting in the wings, the bookmakers’ favourite to replace him is Ms Le Pen, leader of the Right National Rally.

She has previously promised to remove France from Nato’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia and urge Ukraine to agree to a peace deal on Moscow’s terms.

Far-Left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is seen as one of her chief rivals in the ballot set for nine months’ time, has gone even further, pledging to withdraw from the Western military alliance.

A source told The Telegraph that British officials were already exploring what their victories could mean for Anglo-French relations, including the future of the coalition of the willing and the sharing of classified intelligence.

A Western official warned of “a big problem” for Nato should either of the hardliners win the keys to power.

This has prompted further discussion in diplomatic circles about who could step into the void left by Mr Macron and take the top seat alongside Britain.

The obvious candidate is Mr Merz, Germany’s chancellor, who is overseeing a project to transform his country’s armed forces into Europe’s largest military.

But he is mired in domestic crises, leading an increasingly mutinous party and facing growing questions about how much longer he can survive as leader.

Roderich Kiesewetter, an MP for Mr Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a former colonel and member of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee, argued his party’s leader was “no Churchill”.

Unlike Britain, France and a dozen other countries, Germany has refused to commit troops to a future mission to guarantee any ceasefire in Ukraine against further Russian attacks.

Mr Kiesewetter said London and Paris had been “very smart” to publicly pledge such support for Kyiv as it attempted to broker a peace deal with Moscow, but that a different message was coming from Berlin.

If Europe fails to back Ukraine or does not keep its promises to Kyiv, the geopolitical consequences could be severe. Future Ukrainian governments could turn away from the unreliable West to other powers in the neighbourhood.

But the German chancellor isn’t the only foreign leader who is considered a potential weak link.

Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, who presides over one of Nato’s strongest militaries, has refused to join any deployment to Ukraine because of his country’s proximity to Russia.

He faces re-election late next year in what may be a tightly fought contest against the Right-wing Law and Justice party. Mr Tusk was handed an unexpected boost when his populist rivals split, with a new more moderate party being formed this week.

Giorgia Meloni, the Italian premier, who has similarly refused to send troops to Ukraine, must also hold elections in Italy before the end of next year.

While the two leaders, who make up the remains of the European Group of Five, alongside Britain, France and Germany, are expected to win, they are unlikely to be considered possible successors to Mr Macron.

If Sir Keir’s departure from the top table was marked with a celebration of his work, Mr Macron’s exit is more likely to be met with mourning.

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