View from London: Trump is forcing Europe to a reckoning on Ukraine

These are the foreign ministers of European countries. They demand that Trump invite Europe to talk with Russia on the issue of Ukraine. They demand...
Photo: RIA Novosti

The worst nightmare of leaders on the continent is a deal between Putin and the US president done over their heads, writes ‘The Financial Times’.

Emmanuel Macron does not need to be convinced. In Europe, the conversation on Russia’s war in Ukraine has brutally shifted. Donald Trump’s return to the White House and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s opening towards a negotiated settlement have created a new, more volatile situation. Supporting Ukraine for “as long as it takes”, the allies’ mantra for almost three years, does lose credibility when the major partner leaves the chorus. Trump’s willingness to end the war, while keeping the Europeans in the dark over how he intends to do so, poses an enormous challenge to the leaders of the continent.

The French president’s worst nightmare, shared by many of his counterparts, is a Russian-American deal done over the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans — an American diplomatic tradition which, to be fair, predates Trump. Macron scored an early victory when he set up a meeting between Zelenskyy and then president-elect Trump on the margins of the reopening of the newly restored Notre-Dame Cathedral in December. This conversation apparently helped Trump to realise that solving the problem would take more than 24 hours. European officials also point out, somehow reassuringly, that the US president has — so far — avoided hair-raising, Gaza-like scenarios about Ukraine. His line, they believe, has not yet been set, as Russian president Vladimir Putin still seems to think he can win this war.

One line they know to be clear, however, is that of American disengagement. There’s no need to leave Nato — Trump just does not want his country to be burdened with a war in Ukraine. If Europe wants a seat at the negotiating table, it must have something to put on it so that its interests are taken into account regarding not only the terms of the deal but also its implementation. A deal that may look good to Trump because it stops the slaughter of “young, beautiful people” will not be a good deal for Europe. From a European point of view, strong security guarantees for Kyiv are therefore key to any agreement.

This is where things get painful for countries that for decades have outsourced their security to the US and now belatedly realise that this guarantee is gone. A “very dynamic debate” is going on, according to a European official, about what security guarantees would be necessary. Among the most determined countries in this debate — which includes Poland, the Baltics, Sweden and Finland — France is trying to play a leading role, though in a new, unfamiliar mode: by rallying others and keeping the different pieces of the puzzle together rather than by playing its own card.

New formats, outside the EU if need be, such as adding Italy and the UK to the “Weimar triangle” of France, Germany and Poland, have been put to work. Humbled by the adverse reaction a year ago to his surprise proposal for putting western “boots on the ground” in Ukraine, Macron, who is presumably also aware of his weakened position on the European scene due to his domestic political and economic travails, has some work to do to regain his partners’ trust.

Yet France is in a singular position when it comes to facing an American president who may behave more as an adversary than as an ally. For some Europeans, particularly those most exposed to the Russian threat, the possibility of the fall of Ukraine is a terrifying prospect, as they would find themselves next in line. The temptation to try to keep American protection at any cost would therefore run counter to the effort of building a strong European defence capability. France does not share the same sensitivity because it feels protected by its own independent nuclear deterrent.

Snyder’s words at the Sorbonne echo those of Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary-general, who warned members of the European parliament last month that if EU member states do not drastically increase their defence spending, the only options left to them will be to learn Russian or move to New Zealand. Caught between Putin and Trump, Europeans are finally facing the reality they have tried to escape for so long.

European officials fear they will have to bear the cost of postwar security and reconstruction as they reel from being cut out of US-Russia peace negotiations on Ukraine, ‘The Financial Times’ stresses.

Donald Trump said on Wednesday, after talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin, that their delegations would “start negotiations immediately” to end the war, blindsiding European capitals.

More than half a dozen senior European officials told the Financial Times they expected the US president to tell them they must pay for Ukrainian reconstruction and deploy troops there to maintain a peace deal in which they would not be involved.

“The Americans don’t see a role for Europe in the big geopolitical questions related to the war. It’s going to be a real test of unity,” said one senior EU official.

“Trump sees us as money. And frankly we haven’t been clear on what our seat at the table would look like in exchange for that money.”

In a statement on Wednesday evening, six European countries, including Germany, France and the UK, said: “We want to discuss the way forward with our American allies…  Ukraine and Europe must be involved in any negotiations.”

Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius on Thursday expressed regret that Washington had made concessions to Moscow before the start of peace talks, including ruling out Nato membership for Ukraine.

“It is unfortunate…  that Trump has already made public concessions to Putin before negotiations have even begun,” Pistorius said before a meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels. “It would have been better to talk about Ukraine’s possible Nato membership first at the negotiating table.”

He also warned that the threat from Russia may not abate after a peace accord.

European leaders and ministers are hoping to extract more clarity on Trump’s plans from discussions with US vice-president JD Vance and the president’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, at the Munich Security Conference, which begins on Friday.

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday ruled out US troops being deployed or any role for Nato in co-ordinating boots on the ground after the end of the conflict. “Any security guarantee should be backed by capable European and non-European troops,” he said.

EU diplomats are increasingly nervous about the difficulties that senior officials, including European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, have had in securing meetings with members of the Trump administration.

“The EU institutions are still struggling to find the right person with direct access to Trump to talk to,” said a western official with knowledge of the attempts.

Past US administrations valued a dialogue with Brussels in a bid to shore up the transatlantic alliance and maintain unity, said Jeremy Shapiro, research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Trump and his team, however, had shown little interest in doing so, he said. “His role for the Europeans is: pay for everything. Get no credit. Don’t necessarily even attend the meetings. And shut up.”

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