In low mood. The head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Ermak,met with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Washington.
Photo: AP
Donald Trump’s return to the White House is no doubt being greeted with alarm in much of Europe.
The incoming president has a long track record of viewing the continent as an economic rival, and his eagerness to end the war in Ukraine diplomatically remains controversial in European capitals, notes ‘The Financial Times’.
Yet regardless of what a hypothetical peace settlement looks like and what concessions Kyiv will have to offer (assuming a settlement is even possible) we should all stop hyping this conflict as if it was a global clash that will determine the fate of international order as we know it.
The argument often propagated — that a bad deal for Ukraine will compel China, Iran and other adversaries to get more aggressive in their own regions — is based on assumption, not fact. Indeed, it sounds remarkably similar to the faulty 1960s-era “domino theory”, which drove the US into adopting overly-reactive, high-cost policies.
Take China as the principal example. There’s no question Chinese President Xi Jinping seeks to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary.
It’s also a given that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to undergo an impressive military modernisation campaign, centred in large measure on giving Xi the option of using force to subjugate Taiwan if he gives the order.
Would a bad deal in Ukraine increase the odds of China invading Taiwan? While anything is possible, it’s also unlikely.
What may or may not have happened in Ukraine is largely immaterial to this. And what Trump may or may not have done in Ukraine doesn’t tell us much about what Trump will do in Taiwan.
The US and Europe should try to get the best possible deal for Ukraine as it can reasonably get. But it’s wise to stop dramatising the war.
Ukraine isn’t the centre of the universe. To assume otherwise is to misunderstand how international politics works.
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