View from London: Ukraine's path to EU accession narrows as war drags on

Photo: AFP

Joining the EU soon is an important aim for Ukraine as it tries to complete its exit from Moscow's orbit, but there is scepticism in the wealthy bloc of 450 million people about Kyiv's prospects of achieving that goal, Reuters writes.

Some European leaders have said they hope to welcome Ukraine into the bloc in the next few years.

But in conversations with Reuters, more than a dozen diplomats and officials from EU states were privately more cautious, pointing to formidable obstacles that Kyiv and the EU will have to overcome before Ukraine can join.

"You go around and you realise that, in many countries, politicians don't ⁠expect Ukraine to join in 10 years," said Gerald Knaus, chairman of the European Stability Initiative think tank.

But any message that the EU is not serious about Ukraine's accession could have a demoralising effect on the country "that nobody in Europe wants to see," said Knaus, an EU accession expert.

Rising opposition

Even in straightforward cases, it takes years of negotiations and legal reforms for a candidate country to meet the EU's political, democratic and economic standards.

Kyiv faces additional challenges such as uncertainty about the outcome of the war, a history of deep-rooted corruption and Ukraine's large size, which complicates the integration process.

Only 47% of EU residents say Ukraine should join in the coming years, down from 69% in March 2022, according to a survey published in October by Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German political foundation.

In France and Poland, 57% of those polled opposed Ukrainian membership in the coming years. In Germany, the figure was 59%.

A senior European diplomat who asked not to be named in order to discuss sensitive political matters said Ukraine's accession was not a realistic prospect in the next few years.

Another said that with multiple national elections scheduled next year, many governments will be too busy to make the case for enlarging the bloc.

Leaders pushing hardest for quick accession, such as those in the Baltics, say Kyiv would make the EU stronger and safer. Ukraine has a large, battle-hardened army with expertise in drone warfare.

Far-right politicians wary

The EU has not published any recent estimate of the cost of Ukraine accession, and the sum would depend on the outcome of negotiations on market access and transitional arrangements.

But far-right politicians such as France's Marine Le Pen, frontrunner for next year's presidential election, are already highlighting the potential cost.

"If Ukraine joined the European Union, we would be the first losers, doubly so," ⁠Le Pen posted, saying France would face "fierce unfair competition" and a cut to its share of EU farm subsidies.

The Alternative for Germany, which leads opinion polls in Europe's biggest country, submitted a motion to parliament in September urging the government to rule out Ukraine's EU accession.

Internal EU reforms might be required to take in so big a state, one EU diplomat told Reuters, with some countries signalling opposition to any changes that might weaken their own influence or power in the bloc.

EU considers alternative approaches

Such concerns have prompted several proposals by member states to bring candidate countries closer to the EU before they join and to safeguard EU decision-making after accession.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed giving Ukraine a new status of "associate member" to allow Ukrainian officials to take part in EU summits and ⁠ministerial meetings but not vote.

Ukraine says the idea is unfair because it would leave Kyiv without a voice in the EU.

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs