View from London: Ukraine’s allies are falling away

Rally in Budapest: “We will not become a Ukrainian colony!”

A European Union summit once again failed to remove a veto by Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, on a €90 billion (£78 billion) tranche of funding for Ukraine. That cash, in the form of a controversial loan raised collectively by the EU, was negotiated last year as an emergency stopgap designed to keep Kyiv’s war economy going in the absence of funding from the United States. Even Orban was brought, reluctantly, on board.

Without the EU’s funding lifeline, Kyiv is expected to run out of money to pay its public servants, buy military equipment and fund its army by the beginning of summer, ‘Spectator’ writes.

But after the Druzhba oil pipeline that carries Russian oil via Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia was damaged, Orban withdrew his support for the EU loan. Orban claimed that the Ukrainians were dragging their feet on repairing the pipeline and blamed Zelensky personally for delays in getting Russian oil supplies to Hungary flowing again.

The EU has vowed that the continent will wean itself off Russian oil and gas entirely by the end of 2027. Yet Brussels now finds itself in the absurd situation of offering to help repair a Soviet-built oil pipeline in order to restore the supply of Russian oil to Europe. But even the EU’s offer of funding repairs and sending a ‘fact-finding team’ to supervise the Druzhba fix failed to persuade Budapest. Discussions had been ‘tough; I was under pressure from all sides,’ said a defiant Orban. ‘But they tried this in the wrong place and at the wrong time.’ Even worse for Ukraine, Slovak premier Robert Fico also backed Orban and added his veto too.

Some European countries are moving towards restoring relations with Russia

But Orban is not the only factor jeopardising Ukraine’s war effort. Some European countries are moving away from their once rock-solid support for Kyiv and towards restoring relations with Russia. ‘Since we are not capable of threatening Vladimir Putin by sending weapons to Ukraine, and we cannot choke him economically without the support of the US, there is only one method left: making a deal,’ Belgium’s PM Bart De Wever told L’Echo.

We must normalise relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy. That is common sense.

More ominously still, De Wever claimed that in private, European leaders agree with me, but no one dares to say it out loud. We must end the conflict in the interest of Europe without being naïve towards Putin.

The most serious damage to Kyiv, however, comes from the international fallout of Donald Trump’s Iranian operation. In an attempt to calm soaring international oil prices, the US Treasury department has lifted sanctions on Indian imports of Russian oil. And as Belgium’s de Wever suggested, rising energy costs are set to scupper EU attempts to cut dependence on Russian oil and gas.

On the diplomatic front, trilateral talks with the US, Russia and Ukraine have been officially suspended. When they resume, the dynamic will have shifted, and not in Kyiv’s favour. Washington needs the Russian oil supply to stabilise international markets and may even call on Moscow to use its longstanding ties with Tehran to help pick up the pieces when Operation Epic Fury ends.

Kyiv’s challenge is to survive its friends and allies falling away, one by one. 

...Europeans has to acknowledge the fact that does not require additional evidence - Russia can do without Europe. But whether Europe can manage without Russia remains to be seen.

Any negotiations with Moscow could begin on one condition: the lifting of all sanctions against Russia. Without that there's hardly anything to discuss.

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs