View from London: Zelenskyy may be underestimating “how dangerous a wounded Trump could be” for Ukraine

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Defying the U.S. president risks costing Ukraine vital military support. But giving in could prove even more dangerous, Politico stresses.

The U.S. president’s plan to lift sanctions on Moscow to allow diesel imports came as a sucker punch for most Ukrainians enduring barrages of jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles, with civilian casualties mounting.

The question for Zelenskyy is just how angry he can actually afford to be.

“His showing his frustration is understandable, but there are downsides,” said Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former British diplomat and fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

The Ukrainian immediately dubbed Trump’s deal a “weak decision” and “a gift to Putin” that will fund Russia’s war. Even more defiantly, he approved further drone strikes on Russian refineries, prompting Trump to call for Ukrainians to replace Zelenskyy as their leader.

Willasey-Wilsey suspects Zelenskyy may be calculating that Trump could emerge weakened from next month’s midterms, especially as some Republicans are already breaking ranks over the diesel deal. But the Ukrainian leader risks provoking Trump into cutting off vital U.S. intelligence support or pressuring Elon Musk to disable SpaceX’s Starlink internet service, on which Ukraine’s military heavily relies.

Zelenskyy may be underestimating “how dangerous a wounded Trump could be” for Ukraine, warned Willasey-Wilsey.

The Trump administration has also threatened to halt a program through which allies purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine, the Financial Times reported Monday. That would cause a major upheaval in supplies and force Kyiv to rely even more on its European allies, who are already struggling to rearm.

But Trump’s ability to force Kyiv into a settlement has diminished, according to Nathalie Tocci, who advised two former EU foreign policy chiefs. Having already withdrawn most American support, Trump has reduced his leverage over Ukraine and Europe, she argues. He could still inflict considerable damage by suspending intelligence sharing, but she doubts he would do so indefinitely or halt weapons sales. “If money is involved, I can’t see him pulling the plug on sales,” she said.

But the fear in Kyiv is that Trump’s pursuit of a deal with Moscow will come at Ukraine’s expense.

Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a prominent opposition lawmaker and former deputy prime minister, sees little prospect of Putin compromising. “He’s not ready to stop the war or even agree a ceasefire,” she said.

“From my understanding, all the other ‘deals’ which have supposedly been discussed by U.S. negotiators with the Russians have been only about the capitulation of Ukraine and basically the country ceasing to exist as a free, independent, sovereign state.”

That likely explains Zelenskyy’s open anger. He knows that antagonizing Trump comes at a price. But so does appeasing a U.S. president who seems increasingly willing to do business with Putin. For Ukraine, neither option is good.

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