View from Türkiye: Are the Russians returning to Syria?

Russians in Syria
Photo: internationalstudies.ru

Moscow will be able to regain its military bases in Syria, ‘Yeni Şafak’ reports. Israel is lobbying for Russia's military presence in the region to reduce Türkiye 's influence there. The proposal is to divide Syria into spheres of influence, with Russia receiving the western half.

Syrian President Sharaa met with Russian President Putin in Moscow. News about the meeting generally focuses on Assad's extradition to Syria. It's difficult for Russia to take any action on that issue. Indeed, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov announced that Assad had been granted asylum, closing the door. I believe the Damascus government had already anticipated this and therefore had no expectations regarding the Assad case.

However, there's a more important issue. That is the future of Russia's bases in Syria.

Israel invites Russia to Syria

We always talk about Israel's desire for a weak, divided Syria. Another of their desires is to weaken and balance Türkiye's influence in Syria. Frankly, they fear a Turkish presence nearby.

So, we were not surprised to read the following news report in March: “Israel is lobbying the US administration to ensure Russian bases in Syria instead of Turkey.” Some reports also included details like: “To stop Erdoğan, Israel is proposing dividing Syria into spheres of influence. Israel's proposed distribution is: the US in the East, Russia on the West coast, Turkey in the North, and Israel in the South and East.” It was also clear from those reports that Israel wanted to see a Russian observation force in southern Syria, as it did during the Assad era.

Israel seized the Sweida incidents that broke out in July as an opportunity. It began directly targeting Syria. It struck the garden of the Syrian Presidential Palace while Ahmed Sharaa was in his office.

Let us briefly summarize the developments that followed:

US Representative Barrack sent a message to the Damascus administration (in our opinion, in coordination with Israel) that “I recommend requesting regional security assistance.” Syria formally requested military assistance from Türkiye (July 23). Netanyahu spoke by phone with Russian President Putin (July 28). Syrian Foreign Minister Shaybani traveled to Moscow (July 31). Following the talks in July, there was activity at the Russian base in Qamishli. ‘Kommersant’ newspaper reported that Damascus had requested Russian military patrols to operate in Syria's southern provinces. This report has not been denied.

Russians want their bases back

Syria and Israel are holding US-mediated talks on border security. Damascus wants Israel to withdraw from the areas it occupied after December 8th. Israel, however, says it can withdraw except for the area it occupied on Mount Hermon, and in exchange wants a demilitarized southern region. The talks are reportedly stalled because “Israel wants a corridor from the Golan Heights to Sweida.”

Recently, the US, Jordan, and Syria announced the Sweida roadmap. This has created expectations for the Syrian-Israeli agreement to be signed at the UN. However, it appears Israel is waiting for Russian troops to arrive on its border to reach an agreement with Syria. In return, the Russians will demand the bases in Khmeimim and Tartus from Damascus.

So, wouldn't the US's decision to lift sanctions be undermined by the return of the Russian presence? Israel must believe it can persuade the US to do so.

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