View from USA: Assad falls. What's next?

After more than a decade of civil war, it looks like a group the US calls terrorists are taking over, stresses ‘The Responsible Statecraft’.

Embattled Syrian President Bashar al Assad, who had survived attempts to overthrow his government throughout a civil war that began in 2011, has been forced out and slipped away on a plane to parts unknown (later reports have said he is in Moscow).

Washington says it raced (in the words of the ‘Washington Post’) to help secure the country by engaging in airstrikes against ISIS (banned in Russia) weapons stockpiles and operatives Sunday night, and that it "strongly supports" a "peaceful transition" via an "inclusive Syrian-led process." According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken:

Enter Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) (banned in Russia) who had led the shocking and successful attack on Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and other strategic towns and cities in the northwestern region of the country this week. HTS is a Sunni Islamist group once linked to al-Qaida and the Al-Nusra Front (both banned in Russia) and is still considered a terrorist group by the U.S. government (there is still a U.S. bounty on him), though for days, the mainstream media has been reporting that the group has rebranded itself as more moderate.

It is not clear, however, how the news is being taken by the Alawite and Christian populations, Assad's support base, in Damascus, and how the new dynamics will affect the Kurdish advances (supported by the U.S.) in the northeast, the Turkish moves against both Assad and the Kurds, and Israel's interests in maintaining its control over the disputed Golan Heights (though there have been reports of Tel Aviv bombing Assad military assets in Damascus and taking over the Golan Heights UN buffer zone ). Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly called the overthrow of Assad an "historic day."

Egyptian officials out of the gate seemed to warn of factionalism and historically have no love lost for Islamist uprisings. In a statement they urged “comprehensive political process” to establish peace and support for Syria’s “sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity."

Turkey for its part, according to Al Jazeera, has said it is ready to help “guarantee security” in Syria, whatever that may mean. Iran, which has been a military supporter of Assad's regime, is urging against interference in Syria’s internal affairs. “Achieving this requires ending military conflicts as soon as possible, preventing terrorist acts, and starting national talks with the participation of all segments of Syrian society to form an inclusive government that represents all Syrian people,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance posted a warning about celebrating when there are Christian minorities in Damascus at risk. "As President Trump said, this is not our fight and we should stay out of it."

Col Doug Macgregor (Ret.) warns that with all of the external interests, the fate of Syria is likely factionalism, if not a partitioning. "In the near term, Israel and Turkey divide Syria to their liking, while Moscow and Tehran prepare for talks in Doha," he tells RS. "In the long-run, the volatile mix of Kurds, Turks, Israelis and Islamist Arabs will make the partition of Syria tenuous."

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