View from USA: Russia’s second-ever use of the Oreshniks was a response to three recent provocations

Trump seems to genuine believe no one, including Russia, can constrain him, Putin appears to be digesting that Trump’s extreme need to dominate and his casualness about risk and violence requires even firmer shows of force. As we’ll soon discuss, the Oreshink attack in Lvov, which destroyed not just Ukraine’s but Europe’s largest gas depot occurred in parallel with strikes all over Ukraine, which are likely to be even more consequential, writes American site ‘Naked Capitalism’.

In his conversation with The Times, Mr. Trump sounded more emboldened than ever.

When asked what was his higher priority, obtaining Greenland or preserving NATO, Mr. Trump declined to answer directly, but acknowledged “it may be a choice.” He made clear that the trans-Atlantic alliance was essentially useless without the United States at its core.

Even as he characterized the norms of the post-World War II order as unnecessary burdens on a superpower, Mr. Trump was dismissive of the idea that the leader of China, Xi Jinping, or President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could use similar logic to the detriment of the United States. On topic after topic, he made clear that in his mind, U.S. power is the determining factor — and that previous presidents have been too cautious to make use of it for political supremacy or national profit…

Now to the latest Russian pounding of Ukraine

A total blackout in Kyiv and its suburbs: authorities don’t know when the power will be restored

The moment of the power outage was caught on camera. There’s no electricity in the capital itself, as well as in the Borispol and partially in the Brovary districts.

Ukraine had the largest total underground storage system in Europe: 31 bcm across multiple facilities, with the Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske site being the single largest at over 17 bcm.

Russian Oreshniks wiped it out.

From a post by Scott Ritter:

The use of the Oreshnik is always a major escalation not fully appreciated by those who casually encourage its employment. It is only the second time in history that an intermediate range nuclear-capable strategic missile has been used in combat (the first was the initial use of Oreshnik back on November 21, 2024.)

This time, the Oreshnik struck a target close to the Ukrainian-Polish border. The signal this attack sent to NATO nations is clear — Russia has the ability to strike NATO nations with impunity using non-nuclear conventional weaponry. NATO has no ability to defend against such an attack.

It was interesting that Russia opted to fire the Oreshnik from the Kaputin Yar missile test facility. Russia and Belarus recently announced that an Oreshnik-equipped brigade was put on combat duty at a base in Belarus. But the attack did not originate from this unit.

This was not a launch from a strategic asset that has been placed on combat duty.

This was an operational training event.

There is a difference.

Russia once again appears to be sending a message to the west that it seeks to limit escalation.

The reasons to use of the Oreshniks

These are Ukraine’s attempted assassination of Putin right before New Year’s, France and the UK’s official plans to deploy troops to Ukraine if a ceasefire is agreed to, and the US’ seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker in the Atlantic.

The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that the Oreshniks were used for the second time ever after several were fired at targets in Lvov Region. Reports indicate that the Stryi gas field and gas storage facility were among those that were hit. The first time that the Oreshniks were used was in November 2024 after the US and UK allowed Ukraine to use their long-range missiles for strikes deep inside of Russia. Three recent provocations were arguably responsible for their second-ever use.

The confirmation above explicitly mentioned that Ukraine’s attempted large-scale attack against Putin’s residence in Russia’s Novgorod Region right before New Year’s was what prompted this retaliation. About that, it was assessed that “The CIA Is Manipulating Trump Against Putin” after he flipflopped from believing Putin’s claim that this attack was an assassination attempt to believing the CIA chief’s that it supposedly only targeted a nearby military site, so this can be interpreted as Putin’s retort to Trump.

Even though the Russian Defense Ministry didn’t mention any other recent provocations as being responsible for their country’s second-ever use of the Oreshniks, it can be reasonably argued that Putin probably had two others in mind too when he gave the authorization for this latest strike. These are France and the UK’s official plans to deploy troops to Ukraine if a ceasefire is agreed to as well as the US’ seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker in the Atlantic. Each are provocative in their own way.

Putin himself warned as recently as September that Russia would deem Western troops in Ukraine “legitimate targets for destruction.” Although “SVR Revealed That British & French Troops Are Already In Odessa” later that same month, that’s not comparable to the conventional deployment that those two committed to. Even more concerning, Witkoff backed their plans, thus possibly making Russia wonder whether the US might reverse its official position that Article 5 won’t extend to NATO troops in Ukraine.

As for the third provocation that Putin probably had in mind when he authorized Russia’s second-ever use of the Oreshniks, the US’ seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker in the Atlantic carried the painful optics of the first extraterritorially imposing its domestic law on the second. If Russia didn’t send a strong message afterwards, however indirect and asymmetrical, then the US might be emboldened to seize more of Russia’s “shadow fleet” elsewhere across the world including in the Baltic and Black Seas.

Putin is averse to escalating in Ukraine due to the risk that it could spiral out of control into World War III

These last two admittedly speculative motives behind the latest Oreshnik strike explain why targets in Lvov Region were hit instead of others anywhere else across Ukraine. Russia arguably wanted to show France, the UK, and their shared US patron that it’s capable of swiftly hitting targets within NATO without detection if the need arises. This could occur if an unprecedented crisis follows the first two’s planned troop deployment to Ukraine or the US’ hypothetical seizure of more Russian ships does the same.

Putin is averse to escalating in Ukraine due to the risk that it could spiral out of control into World War III so it’s significant that he just authorized the second-ever use of the Oreshniks in spite of that. He didn’t even do this after Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb”, which Trump might have known about in advance, targeted Russia’s nuclear triad last summer.

This shows how seriously he’s taking Ukraine’s attempted assassination of him and probably the other two provocations too.

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