View from Washington: Did Russia attack Poland with drones?

Three regions of eastern Poland were marked 'most vulnerable' during the drone incursion. Russia is far away, Ukraine is nearby…
Pic.: GB NEWS

Poland says that 19 allegedly Russian drones entered its airspace. In an all night operation on September 9th, the Polish air force tried to track them down. According to the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, four of them were destroyed but the rest remain missing. Poland blamed Russia for the attack on their territory and declared that as a NATO member it invoked Article 4 of the NATO Charter, consulting with the other NATO members, notes Stephen Bryen, a former U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense.

Is there sufficient evidence to support an Article 4 action? Article 4, like Article 5 requires NATO consensus, that is, support from all NATO members. Over the years, Article 4 has been invoked 7 times.

The jury is out whether the Polish case is strong in accusing Russia of violating Polish airspace.

The Russians have denied that any of their drones were used in Poland, insisting that the drones they used against Lviv and other western Ukraine targets lacked the range to attack any meaningful Polish targets. Russians could launch drones against western Ukraine from Crimea and from Belarus. At least some of the reported drones over Poland came out of Belarus' airspace.

Especially unclear is why Russia would run any sort of attack on Poland, as doing so could provoke a NATO-led response that might lead to a wider conflict in the region?

Or looked at another way, why would Russia send drones on a meaningless mission instead of going for the jugular and hitting supply depots, military bases and possibly Polish air defense systems?

Could Russian drones have been hijacked by Ukrainian hackers and sent over Poland to cause a provocation?

Drones have been hijacked before, the most famous was in 2011 when Iran hijacked the US RQ-170 stealth drone and landed it at an Iranian airfield.

Causing such an incident could possibly inflame NATO and lead to more weapons and money for Ukraine.

It could also help convince the Poles to send troops to a multilateral security force, should one be formed. Until now, Poland has refused to participate in the security force proposed by French President Macron and British Prime Minister Starmer.

The short answer is we do not know and the Polish government has not provided enough information to be sure, if indeed Russia actually intentionally attacked Polish territory. Russian drones entering Polish airspace is not enough to demonstrate the drones were actually Russian owned or if Russian, under Russian control.

President Trump on Thursday brushed off ‘Russian drones’ that flew into Poland’s airspace earlier this week as “a possible mistake,” while European leaders have described it as “an intentional provocation by Moscow.”

“Could have been a mistake. Could have been a mistake,” Trump told reporters as he left the White House for New York City. “But regardless, I’m not happy about anything having to do with that whole situation. But hopefully it’s going to come to an end.”

P.S.

A car belonging to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's family was stolen.
Photo: newtv.md

As ‘Russian drone’ attacks entered Polish airspace Tuesday night, car was stolen from Tusk's family home, which is under official state protection, Anadolu Agency reports.

A car belonging to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's family was stolen early Wednesday morning in his hometown in the Tricity area of northern Poland, broadcaster TVN24 reported Wednesday.

The theft allegedly occurred in the town of Sopot, where Tusk has a private home.

The situation is particularly alarming because the prime minister's family home – not just the Warsaw villa where he lives – is under the protection of the State Protection Service. Therefore – according to TVN24 sources – the secret services are also investigating the case. Tusk was born and raised in Gdansk, part of the Tricity area.

Unofficial information reported by website Onet.pl indicates that the car, a Lexus, belonged to Tusk’s wife, Malgorzata Tusk.

"Secret service officers were sleeping in the car next to it," investigative journalist Marcin Dobski told wgospodarce.pl, a news site.

The theft occurred amid a wave of Russian drones entering Polish airspace overnight from Tuesday into Wednesday, which led to NATO invoking its Article 4.

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