View from Washington: NATO presence in Kursk invasion

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The strategy and tactics Ukraine is showing at Kursk was developed with NATO, stresses Stephen Bryen, a former US Deputy Under Secretary of Defense.

The Ukrainians pulled off a large-scale invasion using new tactics.  They advanced far into Russian territory, mostly unopposed, or countered only by some territorial units. 

Russia has declared a Federal Emergency in the Kursk region.

Why would Ukraine be willing to sacrifice so many troops in an operation that will "sooner or later" get rolled up? Here are the reasons:

Firstly, Ukraine's ability to defend its territory in Donbass is a dead end, as the Russians are carrying out relentless attacks slowly dislodging Ukraine's defenses, even in built-up towns with high rise concrete and steel buildings as strong positions for Ukraine's troops. On a daily basis Ukraine has been losing around 1,000 troops (killed and wounded) and morale in some brigades has gone to near zero.

The losses, even though Ukraine does its best to cover them up, pervades the society. Much of the resistance to Ukraine's new draft laws is the sense that raw newly-recruited troops will be thrown into combat as "meat" brigades and slaughtered. Most front-line Ukrainian brigades are well below full strength, and in many cases experienced fighters have been lost.

Secondly, Ukraine's leadership is under considerable western pressure to negotiate with Russia, something that even Zelensky has acknowledged. While Zelensky keeps promoting some sort of multi-nation peace conference, with Russia invited to the next one, the Russians have made it clear they are not interested. The Russians also are pressuring Zelensky by saying he is no longer the elected leader of Ukraine and thus not a qualified interlocutor.

Zelensky also knows that if Trump wins in November he has a big problem. Mr. Trump is now saying that even before he actually takes office, that if he wins he is going to solve the Ukraine problem.

Ukraine counters that under current conditions they could be forced to give up a lot of territory and point out that as things now stand they have little leverage. Ukraine cannot continue the war much longer, there is little hope (although a great desire) for NATO to intervene, and Ukraine fears it will be left out on its own.

Thus the Kursk offensive is a gamble for Ukraine to have leverage with Russia in a peace negotiation.

Kursk is an extremely sensitive area for Russia. The WW2 battle for Kursk was a major turning point for the Soviet Union leading to the eventual defeat of the Wehrmacht. That battle was one of the costliest fights in WW2 and remains today the biggest tank battle in history.

But more is involved, and this should not be overlooked.

The strategy and tactics Ukraine is showing at Kursk was developed with NATO.

NATO, in its present configuration, is in a bad place when it comes to defending territory.  If fighting were to break out in Poland, or Romania, or north in the Baltics, the Russians would have a significant advantage in ground forces. One way to counter that would be exactly the kind of operation Ukraine is testing right now in the Kursk region.

The big question is whether Ukraine will be successful in the Kursk operation. Much depends on the rapidity of the Russians response and the ability of the Ukrainian forces to dig in and hold ground.

While the operation is military, the outcome hoped for is political.

There is no doubt it is a big gamble. It upsets the Russian stodgy and systematic approach to territorial conquest. But it risks a huge reaction and utter defeat, writes Stephen Bryen.

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