View from Washington: The Great Powers of 2026

“Sphere of influence” has returned as a defining idea, but the real story is bigger than a U.S.-China-Russia triangle. Eight powers—India, Japan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, China, the United States, Russia, and the European Union—will shape international politics for years to come, ‘19fortyfive’ writes.

The 8 Great Powers that will shape Global Politics for decades

The phrase of the year in international relations has been “sphere of influence.” 

Driven by a purported desire to redirect American energy and attention to the Western Hemisphere, the US national security strategy emphasized that the United States should be dominant within its own neighborhood, implying that other great powers, such as Russia and China, are due a degree of deference within theirs.

However, Russia, China, and the United States are not the only players, nor are they the most important.

As we enter the second quarter of the 21st century, here is a list of eight great powers that will determine the course of international politics for the foreseeable future.

For context, see our 2025 list (a video version is above as well) to see what may or may not changed.

India

India has walked a long and uneven road to global prominence. The very size of the Indian population made it an important player in the immediate wake of independence, although a sclerotic economic system and a troublesome neighborhood created hard limitations on New Delhi’s power.

Nonetheless, India spearheaded anti-colonial sentiment and launched institutional alternatives to both the Soviet and Western principles of global order.

India also maintained a robust democratic culture, even amid periodic authoritarian backsliding during and after the Cold War.

Now, the moment feels like it belongs to India.

India’s nuclear weapons program is one of the world’s most advanced.

India finally passed China in total population in 2023, and does not suffer from the kinds of demographic problems that plague many of the other countries on this list.

New Delhi has carefully played the diplomatic game during the Russia-Ukraine War and has maintained good-enough relations with both Russia and the United States.

Careful diplomacy has also reduced tensions with China. India’s technological future appears promising, with a large cadre of well-educated and entrepreneurially minded workers.

Landmines remain; Trump’s ascension has strained relations with the US even with the conclusion of a new trade agreement. Nevertheless, India is in a strong position as we pass the quarter mark of the 21st century.

Japan

For decades, Japan’s position among the world’s great powers has been controversial, largely because of Tokyo’s relatively small defense posture in the wake of the Second World War.

The Cold War witnessed the substantial expansion of Japan’s economic and financial power under the aegis of Tokyo’s alliance with the United States. Japanese firms reached the very edges of the technological frontier and transformed patterns of trade across the Global North.

But Japan’s military restrictions have limited its strategic influence. Over the past several years, this has changed, even as Japan has begun to face serious demographic challenges and an outmoded financial system.

And yet Japan remains immensely wealthy and at the forefront of many critical global technologies. The world’s fourth-largest economy is more than capable of building and maintaining a world-class military establishment, and Tokyo seems to be moving in that direction.

Brazil

Brazil is the country of the future and always shall be, or so many have said across the country’s long history.

With a large population, a favorable resource endowment, and a strong territorial position in South America, Brazil should enjoy substantial influence in its neighborhood and globally.

Brazil has major advantages. Its aerospace industry is internationally competitive, and Brasilia’s military profile has been steadily growing. The political system is relatively stable, having weathered some internal challenges over the past several years.

Brazil is well respected both regionally and globally, to the extent that respect remains a meaningful currency in international affairs. Brazil’s greatest future challenge will be the uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy, itself generated by American political dysfunction.

With strong leadership, however, Brazil is well positioned to secure a stable position for the rest of the 21st century.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s position among the great powers has historically depended upon two things: the ability to control global oil prices, and the related capacity to maintain good relations with the United States and Europe.

Both remain important today, as the House of Saud exerts substantial influence over the price and availability of oil, the world’s most important commodity. This gives Riyadh leverage over politics, both local and global, and has historically enabled Saudi Arabia’s rulers to pursue political projects at home and abroad.

To be sure, this financial power has not always resulted in military advantage. However, Riyadh has paid increasing attention to establishing and maintaining a modern, effective, and technologically advanced military.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia has experienced rapid population growth and does not appear likely to face the demographic challenges that afflict other members of this list. Modernization of the economy and (perhaps) the pursuit of a nuclear weapon remain key to the future of Riyadh’s global and regional influence.

China

China has resumed its place among the first rank of world powers. Chinese economic growth continues to pace the industrialized world. China has also closed qualitative and quantitative military gaps with its neighbors and with the United States.

China’s nuclear arsenal is growing at a breakneck pace, putting it in a position to compete with both Russia and the United States.

To be sure, not all is well. President Xi Jinping has spent much of the last year purging the senior ranks of the PLA, a campaign that may or may not yield a more efficient and professional military. China’s demographic problems also loom large.

United States

The United States remains the world’s pre-eminent power. American economic, military, and administrative power continues to bestride the globe, notwithstanding constant whingeing about America’s terminal decline.

The United States continues to support Ukraine’s resistance to Russia while also threatening war against Iran and Venezuela, enjoying a global reach without really breaking a sweat. In the face of American threats to seize Greenland, Europe found itself with few options beyond threatening to pull the pin on the grenade of the transatlantic relationship, although Trump ultimately backed down.

This is not to say that the United States is without problems.

A growing debt and a dysfunctional political system have created an unusual degree of uncertainty and instability. The US no longer enjoys the tremendous technological advantages it held throughout the Cold War.

Russia

Russia has had a rough four years. The decision to invade Ukraine was predicated on the idea of a quick war that would leave Europe and the United States no choice but to accept a fait accompli. Instead, Moscow has found itself in a dreadfully destructive war.

Moscow continues to control a continent-spanning territory rich in natural resources. Moscow has mobilized its economy for war and (despite long-term damage) seems unlikely to be forced out of the conflict by economic and financial factors.

Russia also continues to operate the world’s first most lethal arsenal of nuclear weapons. Russia’s natural resources (especially energy) remain too important to the world to be without, and the Russian population is sufficiently well educated to manage an industrial mobilization. The trend arrows all point in the wrong direction for

Russia continues to rank among the world’s foremost powers.

European Union

Were we to exclude the European Union due to its supranational nature, each of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom would deserve some degree of attention, the former by virtue of its robust economy and the latter two because of their global reach and nuclear arsenals.

The governing institutions of the European Union remain a project under construction, and gaps between national preferences and supranational institutional demands continue to plague the continent’s long-term political future.

But given that the three great powers in Europe seem to be aligned on major questions of international influence, including resistance to the demands of the Trump administration and support for Ukraine. Along with Italy, these constitute four of the world’s ten largest economies.

Technologically, Europe is competitive with the foremost economies of Asia and North America, although it no longer enjoys the advantages it once had.

The honest truth about spheres of influence

The honest truth about “spheres of influence” is that they represent an observation about the current state of the world, not a normative judgment or a source of policy guidance. The most brutal conflicts in world history (between Russia and Germany and between China and Japan) have involved contests for supremacy within a regional order, not unwanted interference from external powers. Large countries are necessarily influential in their neighborhoods because they occupy positions at the top of vast social, financial, and economic networks.

Still, as generations of international relations theorists have argued, it is better to wield power than to be the subject of power.

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