War against Russia would probably end in the liquidation of the Polish state

12:02 19.06.2023 •

«Mysl Polska» initiated a Polish-American debate about the ongoing NATO proxy war with Russia in Ukraine. Interestingly, the conclusions of the Polish and American participants in the discussion turned out to be surprisingly similar.

On the causes, course and possible consequences of the ongoing escalation of the conflict, we spoke with Scott Ritter, a well-known American military expert and former weapons inspector in Iraq, and David Pine, the candidate's chief foreign and security policy adviser, a former Pentagon pundit. The Polish side was represented by Adam Smech (Polish Thought) and Krzysztof Tolwinsky (chairman of the Front party, former Deputy Minister of Finance).

According to Scott Ritter, the American military-industrial complex has a significant influence on local politics, making up one of the strongest lobbies. Second, the import of American weapons subjects subsequent countries to American decision-making centers for years.

Krzysztof Tolwinsky recalled that the provisions of contracts with defense corporations require huge amounts to be paid even if they are refused.

Meanwhile, the EU is perceived in the United States as a potential geopolitical adversary, which many American politicians and experts do not hide (for example, the doctrine of Paul Wolfowitz or the statements of Donald Trump, known for his straightforwardness).

Ritter argues that Washington continues to systematically sow discord in the Old Continent, emphasizing the separateness of the so-called New Europe, which includes the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as opposed to the so-called Old Europe.

The US does not see Europe as a partner, and as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, our continent has become even more dependent on Washington, says Adam Smich. In his opinion, the European countries themselves humiliate the international position of the EU.

The so-called Western economic sanctions imposed on Russia have no analogues in recent history. Their magnitude has led some to believe that they can be used to force Moscow to give up its geopolitical demands. Meanwhile, it turned out that successive packages of sanctions hit mainly the European economy.

After the statement of former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who said that Poland and the Baltic countries could enter the war without drawing the entire North Atlantic alliance into the conflict, there were serious concerns about the security of the Poles and the likelihood of them being drawn into the conflict. It will be a deadly clash, which would probably end in the liquidation of the Polish state.

According to Scott Ritter, the choice belongs to Poland and the Baltic countries. However, one can be sure that NATO as a whole will not enter into a conflict directly. That is why all the current discussions are focused on creating some kind of guarantees for Ukraine outside the alliance structures. The most dangerous  moment in the coming months will be the moment when the Ukrainian army will be completely destroyed, which, according to Ritter, is inevitable. That's when there will be pressure to replace the defeated Ukrainians with Poles. “Poland will lose this war. For her, this will be a disaster,” the American analyst emphasized.

According to Krzysztof Tolwinsky, any peace plans must be based on a return to common sense. Logic suggests that there are no real disputes between Russia and Poland, there are no reasons for conflict. Adam Smech reflected on the origins of Polish irrationalism, pointing to the messianic traditions of Polish politics, which are alien to any realism.


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