Will NATO regret snubbing Donald Trump?

On April 4, NATO will be 77 years old. The chance that America will be counted among the celebrants when the birthday celebrations roll around is somewhere between nil and zero, ‘The Spectator’ notes.

President Trump had long predicted that if America needed help, NATO would not come to its aid, even though, as he sees it, the United States has spent billions of dollars over decades defending Europe from Russian aggression. And when America did need help in the war against Iran – a few mine sweepers, please, sirs – the answer ‘no’ came back in several languages.

Trump, who cannot legally exit NATO without Congress, will find ways to use his power as commander-in-chief to engineer a de facto exit by redeploying troops and assets

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer heard the call of what ‘The Spectator’’s Tim Shipman calls his ‘soul-deep belief in international law’ and denied America the use of the military base operated jointly by the US and the UK on Diego Garcia. Starmer since modified that absolute refusal with a carefully circumscribed permission, allowing use of the base for ‘defensive purposes’ only, while continuing to promise he will not involve Britain in America’s war on Iran. That comes, as Trump sees it, too late, ‘We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won.’

German defence minister Boris Pistorius rejected Trump’s call for assistance with ‘This is not our war, we have not started it… To make it crystal clear, we don’t want to get sucked into that war.’ Now that Iran has unveiled a missile that can reach Berlin, and Germany is feeling the consequences of the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, he might be permitting himself a re-think.

“A friend in need is a pest”

In short, the Europeans told President Trump that, as American wrestler Bobby Heenan once put it, “a friend in need is a pest”. Trump has vacillated between admitting he wants, even needs, help and boasting that he does not.

What the ‘transactional’ President really wanted from America’s European allies was an offer of help without being asked, a quid pro quo to which he believes America is entitled in return for bearing a disproportionate share of NATO’s costs. As was the case with Britain’s position concerning use of Diego Garcia, the belated and carefully circumscribed offers of help from other allies were too late and too little in Trump’s view. As Trump told an interviewer: ‘We’ve protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic [about helping us]. And the level of enthusiasm matters to me.’

It matters enough so that Trump, who cannot legally exit NATO without congress, will find ways to use his power as commander-in-chief to engineer a de facto exit by redeploying troops and assets now devoted to NATO to areas of more direct concern, most particularly the increasingly wealthy post-Iran Middle East and on countering the threat from China.

So when Trump’s invitation to the NATO birthday bash arrives, the response may well be: ‘Best wishes, but I have pressing engagements elsewhere.’

Trump considers 'pay-to-play' NATO, with members banned from strategic decisions if they've not hit five per cent spending target

Trump's pointing finger

President Trump is considering a 'pay-to-play' NATO, with members who fail to hit a five per cent spending target banned from key decisions, ‘The Daily Mail’ writes.

The proposed NATO shake-up would see block allies who don't meet a spending target set by Trump excluded from strategic votes – including when the bloc goes to war.

It is one of several plans the US president is weighing up after allies rejected his demand to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including a plan which could see the removal of American troops from Germany.

NATO members currently already spend at least 2 per cent of their GDP on defence, after Trump urged NATO members to double their military funding in 2018.

The alliance's secretary-general Mark Rutte said leaders would have to set out plans for reaching the new 5 per cent target at a summit in Turkey later this year.

An administration source told the Telegraph: 'The frustration we've had with the Europeans has been very real.

'Any country that's not paying 5 per cent shouldn't be allowed to vote on future expenditures at NATO.'

A US source added: 'We need to start the conversation about what is a threat and what does the alliance do. We have to send the message that what Spain and the UK did is unacceptable.'

Britain is hitting the current 2 per cent target, but proportionately spends less on defence than 13 other NATO allies.

NATO's annual report found Britain spent 2.33 per cent of its GDP on defence last year – just above Romania, Bulgaria, and North Macedonia.

The change would also need consensus from other Nato members – and since many allies are unlikely to approve of Trump's proposal, a further battle with Trump could ensue.

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