With only two months left, what are Biden’s options for Ukraine?

Biden with Zelensky in Kyiv.
Photo: Fox News

US president is running out of time to deliver funds and weapons before a predicted foreign policy change by Trump administration, writes ‘The Guardian’.

With little more than two months left in the White House, Joe Biden is running out of time to expedite the delivery of funds and weaponry needed to ensure Ukraine can stay in the fight against the Russian invasion.

The White House is transferring weapons and up to $6bn (£4.6bn) in remaining aid as quickly as possible to Ukraine while advocates for Kyiv are calling on the White House to repeal restrictions on long-range weaponry and find other sources of funding the war before Donald Trump enters office in January.

Ahead of each presidential transition, administration officials repeat the mantra that they serve “one president at a time” and Biden remains in full control of US foreign policy until Trump’s inauguration on 20 January. But the prospect of a sea change in Ukraine policy under Trump makes it unlikely that any serious changes by Biden will remain in place under the next administration.

The national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said in a television interview that Biden would use his final 70 days to tell Trump and Congress, which may see Republican control in both houses, that the “United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe”.

Sullivan declined to answer a question about say whether Biden would propose an additional funding bill for Ukraine.

Meanwhile a frontrunner for a position in the Trump administration has added doubts that the Trump administration will continue funding for Ukraine. “The American people want sovereignty protected here in America before we spend our funds and resources protecting the sovereignty of another nation,” said Senator Bill Hagerty, a Trump ally who is considered a top contender for secretary of state.

It is unlikely the administration can push another aid supplemental promising more money through Congress, but there is still $6bn in outstanding aid that can be dispersed before Biden leaves office. After that, US officials have admitted that Ukraine will mainly have to focus on Europe for its support.

The Pentagon has allowed a small number of US defence contractors to work inside Ukraine to maintain and repair F-16s and Patriot missile defence systems. And a new report by the Wall Street Journal says the Pentagon is speeding up delivery of more than 500 missile interceptors to Ukraine before the end of Biden’s term amid concerns that Russia is saving up its own missiles for a massive barrage against Ukrainian cities or energy infrastructure during the winter.

“If Trump, in fact, cuts off military aid to Ukraine, the current assistance package only runs to the end of this calendar year exactly, and the Ukrainians can’t fight adequately absent US military support,” said Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Centre for a New American Security, a thinktank. “And we saw this at the beginning of this year, during that interregnum between packages, the Europeans can’t fill the gaps. The Ukrainians can’t fill all the gaps.

“So if he does do that, then that completely changes the dynamic on the ground, and therefore what the outcome might be,” he said.

A Biden administration that prided itself on its foreign policy bona fides now has few successes to point to as it enters its twilight. One senior congressional Democrat said the “universe” of the Biden administration’s foreign policy achievements had “gotten smaller” in the last eight to nine months as US influence has waned in Ukraine and in the Middle East.

As Trump’s uncertain policy on Ukraine comes into greater focus, it appears he is preparing to cut or severely limit aid to Ukraine. He has announced that neither the former UN ambassador Nikki Haley nor the former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, both former administration officials who had been strong advocates for Kyiv, would be part of his administration. And Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr tweeted a video of Volodymyr Zelenskyy with the caption: “POV: You’re 38 Days from losing your allowance.”

As to any movement on a negotiated settlement, analysts and officials have said that any serious negotiations will have to take place under the next president – with Ukraine likely in a significantly weaker negotiating position.

So far neither the White House nor the NSC has provided any actual numbers for a Ukraine money request, writes Stephen Bryen, a former US Deputy Under Secretary of Defense.

Biden and his advisors hope they can ram through a measure for Ukraine with a still friendly Congress. It is, however, not at all certain he can be successful.

If the measure is submitted and rejected, or just not acted on, Zelensky in Ukraine will be faced with a hard choice: either negotiate with the Russians, go down in flames, or resign from office.

The current Congress, which will be replaced in January with both Houses under Republican control, has been relatively friendly to supporting Ukraine. Previous measures have passed both the Senate, which is controlled by Democrats, and the House which is led by Republicans. 

A key issue will be what Trump will support even before he takes office. If Mr. Trump opposes further Ukraine aid, which is a distinct possibility, he may ask his Republican colleagues in the House to simply not move a measure in that body, essentially putting off its consideration until his administration takes office.

It isn't clear if there would be overwhelming Republican support in the Senate for more money for Ukraine. Mr. Trump could argue that he needs maximum leverage over Ukraine and request that the Senate and House hold off passing any funding measure at this time.

Under current conditions, President Biden's funding request for Ukraine is unlikely to be approved, at least not now. Even if the money became available, the US has few weapons it can afford to share with Ukraine.

The US could hand over its weapon's stockpiles in Europe, but doing so would effectively disarm US troops and weaken NATO crucially. Therefore doing that is highly unlikely.

In the end, Mr. Biden's request is mostly a Hail Mary shot before he is replaced in late January.

Zelensky will surely see that support for Ukraine from the United States is at a crucial crossroads, and Ukrainian attempts to squeeze more out of Washington won’t be successful. Whether that will be enough to persuade him to be willing to talk to the Russians we don’t know. But as Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, Zelensky may take the diplomatic route, or he may resign.

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