WP: Frustration with Trump grows among U.S.’s Persian Gulf allies

Frustration with Washington is growing in the Persian Gulf region, where U.S. allies are increasingly concerned that President Donald Trump is unable to manage the diplomacy necessary to secure peace with Iran, Arab and Western officials say.

Trump in recent weeks has repeatedly issued threats against Iran, only to withdraw them, citing progress in talks. After months of conflict, and continuing missile and drone strikes by Iran and its proxies, three officials and a former U.S. diplomat told The Washington Post, the governments of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain are now united in their aggravation with the administration. Some have begun to debate the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory.

“Trump started this war,” one Gulf official said, “and we are paying the price.” Like others in this article, he spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject. Anger with the United States, the official said, was at its highest point since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February.

The Gulf states continue to rely on Washington as a close security partner and major arms supplier, and Qatar and Bahrain host large U.S. bases. But the frustration is leading some states to consider new arrangements. These dynamics are unlikely in the near term to significantly reorder the region, analysts say, but some countries have begun to explore their options.

A mutual defense agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan last week was “a signal to the U.S.,” a senior European official said.

The pact shows the three powerful Sunni Muslim states “are trying to diversify their security and defense partnerships,” said the official, who is in regular contact with Gulf leaders. “In their mind, the U.S. is not enough.”

“There has been frustration from the get-go,” said Firas Maksad, director for the Middle East and North Africa practice at the Eurasia Group. U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf, he said, feel they were “unnecessarily entangled” in a war that Trump is now struggling to resolve.

Maksad, who has extensive contacts within Gulf leadership, said Trump’s Iran policy is often described in the region as “erratic” and “unpredictable.”

Anna Jacobs, a fellow with the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said there has been “diminished trust” of the U.S. since the start of the war. U.S. allies think the country’s “conduct in the region is making them less safe, not more safe,” she said.

One Western diplomat in the region said these changes don’t amount to a significant shift in sentiment toward the United States. Even before the war with Iran, he said, U.S. forces in the region were not “enthusiastically” welcomed. “It was more something that was a necessary evil,” the diplomat said. “Now, the necessity of it is being put in question.”

Attitudes toward the war among Gulf leaders have shifted. Oman has opposed the conflict from the outset, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have at times backed it.

Emirati forces have conducted “numerous” strikes on Iranian territory in recent months, according to the Western diplomat, and Saudi forces have struck back at Iranian-backed groups attacking from Iraq.

“At the beginning of the war, they were — I don’t want to say, supportive — but honestly, they were not totally against the war,” the senior European official said. The thinking in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, he said, was that a quick, definitive victory could prove beneficial.

That began to shift in the lead-up to the first round of talks between Iran and the United States in April, the official said, when it became clear that not only would the Iranian regime not fall, but it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

In the months since, Trump’s inconsistency has alarmed the Gulf, said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University.

“Even before all this back and forth with Trump, there was no clear strategy,” said Al-Saif, a fellow of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. He cited the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran in June.

“The MOU was a joke,” he said. The agreement didn’t address the Gulf states’ top concerns, including Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal or Tehran’s support for proxy forces.

If the conflict continues, the economic pressure on the Gulf will grow. Even during peacetime, the region quiets over the summer, tourism slows and residents hole up indoors to escape 100-degree days.

But in autumn, temperatures fall and activity resumes. This year, the conferences, summits, festivals and Formula One races that pack the calendar from October through December are all in limbo.

Saudi Arabia’s 10th annual Future Investment Initiative Institute in late October, the “Davos in the Desert,” could be an early test of whether senior officials and top CEOs are willing to visit the region, the Western diplomat said.

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