WP: Iran’s missiles pierce Israel’s defenses, raising doubts about interceptors

Tel Aviv
Photo: middleeasteye.net

Concern that Iran was amassing missiles to overwhelm defenses was a key factor in the push for war, officials said, and recent strikes laid bare Israel’s vulnerability, ‘The Washington Post’ notes.

The faith in Israel’s state-of-the-art air defenses has been shaken. In incidents about three hours apart on Saturday night, Iranian missiles directly hit two civilian neighborhoods in Arad and Dimona, blowing out the windows of Azran’s home and many of his neighbors’. More than 115 people were injured, authorities said, including 11 seriously.

Israel’s military has not explained what went wrong. The strikes have raised questions about whether Israel may be running short of interceptors and revived concerns that the military may need to conserve expensive interceptors to defend vital targets over a sustained period. Dimona, which is home to a sensitive nuclear facility, presumably ranks among those vital targets.

The speaker of Iran’s parliament said Israel’s failure to intercept missiles in highly protected Dimona represented a turning point. “Israel’s skies are defenseless,” the speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said in a post.

Concern that Iran was amassing a missile stockpile capable of overwhelming Israeli defenses was a major factor in the push to renew strikes against Iran, senior Israeli security officials said.

Iran’s missile stockpile was significantly depleted during the 12-day war in June, officials said, reduced from an estimated 3,000 munitions to fewer than 1,500 as Iran bombarded Israeli targets and the Israel Defense Forces hit missile batteries and launchers.

The pace alarmed Israeli security officials. Israeli defenses “cannot absorb 3,000 to 5,000 missiles,” a former senior Israeli security official said, describing concerns that Iran could have exceeded such numbers in a year. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military issues.

Depletion could also be a factor. A single Arrow missile costs about $3 million. David’s Sling interceptors cost around $700,000 each, experts say, and Iron Dome interceptors cost around $50,000 to $70,000. A THAAD interceptor costs about $15 million.

The Pentagon burned through $5.6 billion worth of munitions in the first two days of the assault on Iran, according to three U.S. officials.

Jason H. Campbell, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said the Pentagon would need to quickly adjust if Iran indeed had missiles with far greater ranges than previously known.

“That would instantly change the decision calculus for a lot of U.S.-NATO allies and partners in terms of the nature of the current threat,” Campbell said, and what leaving the current Iranian regime in place “might mean for their safety.”

Iran may have “greater capabilities than what they’ve been advertising,” said Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

He said the Iranians have been developing space launch vehicles, what he called a “cousin” of missiles.

“If you have the ability to put something, even something small, into orbit, you probably have the opportunity to throw something, you know, further than 2,000 miles,” Karako said.

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