WP: Why Democrats are starting to feel bullish about a midterm wave

Demonstrators hold a Democratic Socialists of America banner ahead of a vote by the Rent Guidelines Board in New York
Photo: Bloomberg

Democrats’ wary optimism about the midterms gave way to growing confidence, The Washington Post notes.

The party has seen strong post-Labor Day polls in key battlegrounds — and even in traditionally red areas. Recent escalations in the war in Iran, including an attack on a major pipeline in Saudi Arabia, mean the rising gas prices bedeviling Republicans will not be going down anytime soon. Republicans have not been able to bring prices under control more generally. And President Donald Trump’s unpopularity is at near-record levels.

Considering all this, Democrats now think conditions are right for the party to retake control of the House and possibly the Senate later this year.

“If the election were held today, we would win the majority,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (New York) said in an interview with The Washington Post.

Schumer said he felt “considerably more bullish” about Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate than he did a few months ago. He described the environment as uncannily similar to 2006, when discontent with the war in Iraq helped Democrats recapture the Senate and the House.

House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Massachusetts) said Democrats’ recent momentum is driven by their focus on the economy, with voters believing that the party understands the financial pain they’ve felt in the years since Republicans swept into unified control.

“That is what is driving these polls,” Clark told The Post.

Still, Democratic fears remain

Democrats need at least four more seats to take the Senate majority and would have to win at least two in states Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024. Republicans are seeking to blunt any Democratic gains by flipping Democratic-held open seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, where polls show competitive races. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the Senate contest in New Hampshire from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up”.

Republicans focused on keeping control of the House argue that they have a more favorable map, partly because a GOP redistricting effort has limited the number of battleground districts, and partly because they believe that Democratic primary voters nominated weak candidates in a handful of key races.

Then there is the incoming flood of GOP money.

“The Republican campaign engines are firing on all cylinders, and we are burying House Democrats in battleground districts across the country,” said Mike Marinella, spokesperson for House Republicans’ campaign arm. “Republicans have the historic fundraising advantage, a more favorable map, stronger candidates, and the firepower to defy history and grow our House majority.”

Schumer acknowledged Republicans’ financial advantage but said it would not stop Democrats from retaking the Senate.

“We don’t need as much money as them given the political climate, given the terrain,” he said. “All we need is enough to stay in the ballpark and be able to answer them.”

Republicans have begun to openly acknowledge electoral concerns in recent weeks, particularly with polls showing that Democrats are far more eager to vote than Republicans are.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) told reporters that he was going to Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa to raise money for GOP Senate candidates.

“If you told me six months ago I was going to be having to spend my time in those three states, I wouldn’t have believed you. Those ought to be fat guy layups for us,” he said, though he predicted Republicans would hold those seats.

“The far left, they’re angry,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said on the “Pod Force One” podcast, describing this as a “challenging environment” for his party. “They hate President Trump with a burning passion. And they’re going to crawl over broken glass to vote.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) acknowledged Wednesday that Republicans are facing “headwinds” but said the Senate races that will decide control of the chamber remain competitive.

“It’s not a great environment for us,” Thune said. “But we’ve got really quality candidates in all the competitive races, and the polling that we’re seeing in those races shows that these races are tight.”

Democrats see electoral opportunity in President Donald Trump's low approval ratings
Photo: Reuters

“I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot,” Trump said during one of two speeches he gave at the Republicans’ midterm convention in Dallas recently. “Just one more time.”

Trump has made it difficult for many candidates, especially those in tight races, to embrace this tactic. In large part, that’s because he has repeatedly dismissed the issue that voters say is their main stressor: prices. His trade war has raised prices on goods across the country. And gas prices, which have shot up because of the president’s war against Iran, are nearing $4.50 per gallon on average.

The president has promised to get out the vote for Republican candidates, including those in trouble deep in Trump country. Some have taken him up on his offer, but not every candidate wants him around, and administration officials’ visits to red states have been seen as warning signs for Republicans.

Some Democratic operatives running campaigns said they had been waiting to see whether Republicans would coalesce around a clear affordability message during the Texas event. But when it became obvious that the event would be a Trump-centric celebration that offered no direct case for why Republicans deserved unified control for two more years, their confidence grew.

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