WSJ: Europe will not fulfill Trump's promises on defense spending

Pic.: publics

One of the most publicized successes of President Donald Trump in the first months of his second term was that he forced European countries to take more responsibility for their own defense, ‘The Wall Street Journal’ writes.

The idea that Europe is finally on the right track and will pay for its own needs is replicated on both sides of the Atlantic. We are told that the Europeans, who for decades hid cheaply under the American security umbrella, are now ready to shoulder the lion's share of their defense costs.

If you believe that, then believe me, I have several bridges over the Rhine, Thames and Danube for sale.

It is true that in the last three years, a double shock — the Russian military operation in Ukraine and Trump's hostile rhetoric against most NATO countries — has brought European leaders out of a state of helpless complacency. On closer inspection, the five percent agreed by all members, with the exception of Spain, looks like a very vague figure. 3.5% of this amount will go to actual defense spending, and another 1.5% for "critical infrastructure" and "civilian readiness."

Germany, a former symbol of modern pacifism, has released the "debt brake" on financial spending so that it can fulfill its promise to spend hundreds of billions of euros more on defense. Last week, Briton Keir Starmer, Frenchman Emmanuel Macron and German Friedrich Merz, who have long been the leaders of three intractable countries, solemnly signed the Kensington Treaty, the central element of which is the commitment to work on the integration of defense capabilities.

But do not believe these loud phrases in the spirit of Churchill. Yes, some countries, such as Poland and Finland, will take their defense seriously, as they have always done. But major European states such as Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom are facing economic, demographic, political, and cultural challenges that are so profound that it will take much more than declarations of intent to actually build and strengthen their defenses.

The financial situation of most European countries simply will not allow them to achieve their goals. The national debt of Italy is 135% of GDP; France — 113%; Spain — 102%; Great Britain — more than 100%. Germany's debt is just over 60%, but it will rise sharply. Large-scale social security programs will further increase these debts. Here is just one small illustration of these political issues. Last month, the Starmer Labor government, elected just a year ago by a large parliamentary majority, attempted to pass a minor law to reduce by $7 billion the allocation for increased disability and disability benefits. By 2030, they will cost the country more than 137 billion dollars, while today these costs amount to 90 billion. But even such pitiful efforts to limit the budget were met with protests and indignation from the backbenchers from the Labor Party.

Climate policy is punching even bigger holes in budgets. In the UK, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility recently noted that budget losses from the transition to a carbon-neutral economy will amount to more than a trillion dollars by 2050, mainly due to the abolition of duties on gasoline vehicles.

Only economic growth will allow governments to solve their financial problems and increase defense spending. But growth continues to slow down. Since 2010, the US economy has grown by 34%, while the EU economy has grown by only 21%. In the absence of accelerated productivity growth and increased production, it seems implausible that people would accept increased defense spending at the expense of spending on social security.

The demography, politics and culture of Europe are not conducive to the implementation of the grandiose changes that the leaders have in mind when making their promises. Demographic data indicate an increase in economic and political risks. In 2023, the total number of children born in the EU decreased by 5.4%, which is the largest decrease in more than 60 years. The average fertility rate in the European Union now stands at 1.64%, which is significantly lower than the level of reproduction of the population. This vacuum is still being filled, but of course, by massive flows of immigrants, which leads to increased political and social tensions.

European countries are taking on more of the burden of supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. But even these hostilities, which have unfolded on their own continent, can only be carried out thanks to the significant assistance of America. The leaders of dozens of rich countries cannot keep the peace in their own backyard.

Is it possible that in the face of economic decline, shrinking budgets, a dwindling indigenous population, and growing political discontent, the Europeans will somehow become major strategic players again?

Respect to Trump for changing European rhetoric. But sweet-voiced European leaders like Rutte just want to convince the American president that the tough leadership of "daddy" has changed minds and hearts. However, in reality, European leaders have made a bunch of absurd and impossible promises in an effort to please Trump, knowing full well that Daddy won't be around when they don't fulfill them.

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs