WP: Israel likely to strike Iran in coming months, warns U.S. intelligence

The warnings about a potential Israeli strike are included in multiple intelligence reports spanning the end of the Biden administration and the beginning of the Trump administration, none more comprehensive than an early January report produced by the intelligence directorate of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency, ‘The Washington Post’ writes.

The report warned that Israel is likely to attempt a strike on Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities in the first six months of 2025. Current and former U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence told The Washington Post that the finding derives from an analysis of Israel’s planning following its bombing of Iran in late October, which degraded its air defenses and left Tehran exposed to a follow-on assault. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss highly classified intelligence.

The Israeli government, CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment. A spokesman for the White House National Security Council, Brian Hughes, said President Donald Trump “has made it clear: He will not permit Iran to get a nuclear weapon.”

The prospect of a looming Israeli strike creates an early test for Trump, who campaigned on restoring peace and tempering the armed conflicts raging in the Middle East and Europe while also touting his staunch support for Israel.

The military intelligence report spelled out two potential strike options, each involving the United States providing support in the form of aerial refueling as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, said those familiar with the document. Such reliance on the United States in any strike on Iran — even one that yields only modest results — underscores Washington’s leverage over Israel’s path forward.

A distance attack, known as a standoff strike, would see Israeli aircraft firing air-launched ballistic missiles, or ALBMs, outside of Iranian airspace, the intelligence report said. A more risky stand-in attack would see Israeli jets enter Iranian airspace, flying near the nuclear sites and dropping BLU-109s, a type of bunker buster. The Trump administration approved the sale of guidance kits for those bunker busters last week and made a notification to Congress that it had done so.

The U.S. assessment found that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would at best set back its activities by months, and potentially only by weeks, said current and former officials. Any attack also would incentivize Iran to pursue weapons-grade enrichment of uranium, the officials said, a long-standing red line for the United States and Israel.

The six-month time frame for a likely operation and details on the two potential strike scenarios have not been previously reported. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Israel is considering a strike on Iran this year.

Trump, earlier this week, alluded to a growing awareness of Israel’s interest in a strike. “Everyone thinks Israel, with our help or our approval, will go in and bomb the hell out of them. I would prefer that not happen,” Trump told Fox News.

“There’s two ways to stopping them: with bombs or a written piece of paper,” Trump added. “I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them.”

Trump’s comments, which followed his reimposition of “maximum pressure” on Iran aimed at reducing its oil exports down to zero to achieve a nuclear deal, angered leaders in Tehran.

“These reckless and inflammatory statements flagrantly violate international law… which prohibits threats or use of force against sovereign states,” said Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Saeed Iravani.

…All politicians in Israel should look at the map of the Middle East and see how tiny their country is. A war against Iran with serious blows on Israel would be a disaster for the country...

They should take into consideration in Israel, that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed Iran’s nuclear program in a phone call between the two leaders. “The issues of Middle East settlement, Iran’s nuclear program, and bilateral economic relations between Russia and the United States were also brought up during the conversation,” said the Kremlin in a statement.

And also in Israel they should remember that in January 2025 Russia and Iran have signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

Doesn't Israel understand this? Or, they are so naively to believe that America will fight instead of Israel?

read more in our Telegram-channel https://t.me/The_International_Affairs