WSJ: Russia brushes off Trump’s threats on Ukraine

President Trump’s initial attempts to lure Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table on Ukraine have been met with what essentially amounts to a shrug, ‘The Wall Street Journal’ writes.

“We don’t see anything new here,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, a day after Trump took to Truth Social to warn he would be willing to increase the economic pressure on Moscow after a raft of sanctions were applied following its invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago.

Putin’s inner circle has reason to regard Trump’s threat as hollow. Kremlin believes it has successfully stood up against sanctions and that Moscow has the capacity to withstand at least another year of the conflict while Russians continue to sign up to serve on the front line.

Russian forces have slowly chewed westward through Ukraine, threatening cities and towns that are important logistics hubs for the Ukrainian military. They now control almost one-fifth of the country.

“We have imbalances and inflation, but it’s not so acute to demand the stop of all hostilities,” said Vasily Kashin, director of the Department for World Economy and International Affairs at the Moscow-based Higher School of Economics. “We are in a position to press on with our demands…and if Ukraine’s defense continues to collapse as it is now, it would be wiser for the other side to agree to our terms.

With another U.S. aid package for Ukraine off the table, Trump’s warning appears to be too little to force a change in Russia’s basic demands, which include de facto recognition of the land they have gained, an end to NATO-Ukraine ties and a vastly reduced Ukrainian military.

Rather, the Kremlin is inclined to see Trump’s statement on Truth Social as posturing ahead of any negotiations, as opposed to part of the negotiations themselves, and is still waiting for a more substantial overture from Washington.

“We remain open to dialogue,” Peskov said. “President Putin has repeatedly said that.”

Some Russian officials have voiced cautious optimism since Trump’s November victory in the U.S. presidential election. Putin has angled for a summit with Trump in which the two leaders could hash out a settlement amenable to Moscow, analysts say, shutting out a Ukrainian leadership he has dismissed as illegitimate.

Kyiv, meanwhile, has conceded that regaining all the territory lost to Russia during the war is an unrealistic goal, but it is asking for security guarantees that will make it impossible for Russia to regroup forces after a cease-fire and attack it again. Russia has said Ukraine must take into account “the new territorial realities,” in effect permanently ceding the land it has lost in battle.

In the broader scope of the yearslong public back-and-forth between officials in the U.S., Ukraine and Russia, analysts say Putin is likely to treat the latest warning by Trump as little more than a ploy by the new U.S. president to shore up his base and demonstrate the tough stance he has promised in regard to U.S. adversaries.

“Putin sees these statements as part of a political game. He doesn’t take them seriously,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a Paris-based political scientist who maintains contacts with people close to the Kremlin. “He’s ready for any scenario and has no illusions that a deal will come quick.”

“The Russians always want to be spoken to directly; the Kremlin was already annoyed by his messaging style in the first term,” said Oleg Ignatov, Russia analyst for the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit organization dedicated to preventing and resolving conflict. “It’s not how you deal with Russians.”

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