WSJ: Trump thought opening the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. Iran had other plans

Commercial vessels anchored last week in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran
Photo: AP

For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he’s willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said, The Wall Street Journal writes.

But that scaled-back objective became more difficult when Iran insisted Saturday on its highest price yet for permitting the free flow of traffic in the waterway, seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the removal of American troops from the region and an end of the U.S. naval blockade, among other things.

This rapid chain of events suggests Trump’s options for walking away from the conflict have again narrowed. Trump has repeatedly threatened — and then backed away from — a massive escalation of its bombing campaign. But the recent chaos in negotiations signaled Tehran is prepared for a long and grinding conflict.

“Iran’s recent hardline demands for reopening the strait make it increasingly difficult for the president to manufacture a face-saving off-ramp from the conflict,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said, “The Iranians fully believe Trump wants out and is focused on opening the strait, which is why they are playing hardball.”

Hanging over diplomatic talks since April has been the White House’s ultimatum that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump sought to include nuclear talks as part of broader negotiations with Iran, but those have proven too difficult, leading the White House in recent weeks to focus more on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s ability to essentially choke off the waterway through sporadic missile and drone attacks has proven to be powerful leverage for the country, stalling commercial traffic and roiling global oil markets. Trump has declared repeatedly in recent weeks that the Strait of Hormuz was already fully open, but each of those promises has proven premature.

Now, with less than three months until the midterm elections and the price of gasoline still much higher than it was before the war started in late February, Trump has been looking for ways to tell the American public that the war is won.

Tehran, which closed the waterway once the war began in February, has insisted that no American warships be allowed to traverse the waterway and has pushed to collect revenue from commercial vessels. Washington has said it won’t accept Iranian restrictions or tolling, U.S. officials said.

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the U.S. would need to permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade, withdraw its forces, end all sanctions, free Iran’s frozen assets, pay war reparations, end threats and insults, and stop military action against Iran’s militia allies around the region before Iran would open the strait, according to a report on state news agency IRNA.

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