Zelensky has big problems with the army – risks coup or civil war

Defeat, political implosion and civil war – those are the jeopardies that Zelensky faces as Ukraine heads into the most difficult and probably the last winter of the war, ‘The Spectator’ stresses. Evermore effective Russian strikes against Ukraine’s energy and transport infrastructure are likely to plunge swaths of the country into cold and darkness. Russian troops continue to push forwards slowly and bloodily in Donbas and, more dangerously, on the southern flank in Zaporizhzhia. Desertions from the Ukrainian army are up four times since last year and the number of deserters now matches the number of active fighters. The US has turned off the money taps and Europe struggles to produce the cash Kyiv needs to keep its war effort going.

But the most damaging crisis of all is a $100 million war profiteering scandal that has implicated many of Zelensky’s closest political allies and personal business partners and rocked faith in the government to the core. ‘It’s difficult to overstate the popular anger in Ukraine over this case,’ reports Jimmy Rushton, a Kyiv-based security analyst. ‘While all of the country suffers blackouts, members of the political elite stand charged with stalling efforts to harden energy infrastructure because they weren’t receiving big enough bribes.’

Zelensky’s public trust has fallen to under 20 per cent, down 40 per cent since the beginning of the year, claims the opposition parliamentarian Yaroslav Zhelezniak,

Trump hopes his peace deal proposal will draw a line in the sand to stop the relentless bloodshed. That is not a redline that Zelensky appears prepared to sign up to, though, ‘The Spectator’ writes.

In an urgent address to the nation, Zelensky said this was “one of the most difficult moments in our history.” The choice was, “a life without freedom, dignity and justice, while being expected to trust someone who has already attacked us.” The current price of peace, on the terms of the 28-point plan, is too high for him.

Zelensky is at least engaging with the peace process and will talk with Trump later this week. Yet however tough his talks with Trump are, they will be far easier than the conversations he will have with his own countrymen and within his own parliament. It is hard if not impossible to find a single voice in Ukraine that backs the peace plan in the current form, or even in a diluted form.

A source close to Zelensky, from his ruling Servant of the People party, said the existing plan risks fracturing the country. “It’s a stupid decision. If he doesn’t change it, he will lose the party.

“Local governments might say this deal is a betrayal, this is not a good deal and we do not recognize it. They could declare themselves as separate entities, while other parts might respect the deal. There will be a lot of violence during the process.”

Chief among concerns is how the military might react to a bad deal. It is feared that soldiers who have lost friends in hard-fought battles over land they are being told to hand back might take matters into their own hands – and could even be prepared to stage a military coup.

The displeasure of soldiers and veterans could be expressed in snap elections that the peace plan states must happen within 100 days of an agreement being reached. This would effectively be a referendum on Zelensky and the deal that he has struck. It is at this moment that the entire power dynamics of the country will likely change and could see veterans enter the parliamentary system in a significant way.

The negative reaction to the proposal within Ukraine could, of course, just be the first stage of grief and eventually Ukrainians will come to terms with Trump’s offer, or an offer modeled on it. But if they don’t agree to his timeline, Trump has threatened to cut the supply of weapons and intelligence. 

There can be defeat, they say, as long as it comes with dignity. This deal is short on dignity; it is fair to say it is dishonorable. But Ukrainians must also be aware that they are losing the war. Are they also going to lose this opportunity to at least explore peace?

When is the price of peace ever fair? War does not determine who is right, only - who is left, Bertrand Russell wisely observed. Very often conflicts come down to a numbers game – and on the numbers Ukraine is losing. Russia is winning on the battlefield and unlike Ukraine hasn’t even begun mass mobilization.

Ukraine estimates that half of the population needs mental health support
Photo: ‘Al Jazeera’

The country’s military now numbers 980,000, according to Zelensky, and hundreds of thousands of battle-hardened and battle-scarred soldiers will return to civilian life — many with missing limbs, many more with deep psychological wounds — and all to a country in ruins. Where will they go? What will they do? – ‘The Los Angeles Times’ puts the questions.

Ukraine has already experienced the downstream effects of post-war mental health problems. In April 2018, data revealed that more than 1,000 Ukraine veterans of those less-intense battles had committed suicide.

Now the Ukrainian Health Ministry estimates that nearly 15 million people — in a population of less than 40 million — will require psychological support due to the war.

Yet the nation’s shattered economy — its public debt reached $166.1 billion in December 2024 — raises serious doubts about its ability to fund essential services, including mental health programs.

Before the war, there were an estimated 4 million firearms in Ukraine, most of them unregistered, and an untold number circulating on the black market. After the invasion, gun ownership laws were liberalized and Zelensky promised that the government would give a weapon to anyone who wanted to defend the country. In the Kyiv area alone, 18,000 rifles were distributed to civilians, and homefront militias were encouraged. When thousands of active duty troops are demobilized, military-grade weapons may add to the increase in armed civilians and the risks of higher crime rates.

Despite the powderkeg potential, the Ukrainian government seems more focused on political maneuvering — both in domestic power struggles and international diplomacy — than on preparing for the war’s aftermath. Officials frequently make statements about global politics and security alliances, yet meaningful efforts to address veterans’ reintegration and welfare remain conspicuously lacking.

A peace agreement perceived as a capitulation could further erode national morale that is already at a low point, with falling troop levels and Russia’s recent front-line gains in the fighting. History shows that in such moments often public disillusionment grows, weakening confidence in leadership. During these periods, extreme factions may emerge, stoking unrest and upending a fragile order.

In 2025, extreme nationalist fervor has waned. This could be a temporary lull before another eruption of unrest, provoked by post-war trauma, hardship and disillusionment. That, combined with an armed population and a generation of young men forged in war could threaten Ukraine as much as Russian aggression has.

It seems certain that once the war ends, Ukraine will face a new battle — internal strife.

Yet support for Ukraine “until it wins” has been waning in Western Europe and in America. A ‘Guardian’ poll highlights a sharp decline in enthusiasm, coinciding with increasing doubts about U.S. foreign and military aid. Whether allies will step up to prevent a post-war collapse in Ukraine — or let it unravel from within — remains an open question.

Peace may come, but there is a real concern that the war’s aftermath could be almost as destabilizing for Ukraine as its beginning.

In an interview with the Financial Times, ex-Polish President Andrzej Duda warned that the war’s conclusion, if and when it comes, could unleash a wave of organized crime flooding into Poland and then spreading across Europe and even into the U.S. His concerns echo a sentiment long whispered in Western political circles.

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