Arms race is gripping the Korean Peninsula

A photograph provided by North Korean state media showing Mr. Kim visiting the manufacturing site of what was called a nuclear-powered missile submarine, at an undisclosed location in North Korea
Photo: Korean Central News Agency

An intensifying arms race is gripping the Korean Peninsula, as both sides trade missile tests and North Korea supercharges development of more lethal warheads, attack drones and other new weapons to threaten the South, The New York Times writes.

North and South Korea have maintained a fierce military rivalry since the Korean War ended in an uneasy armistice, with Pyongyang turning to nuclear weapons after the Soviet bloc collapsed. Now, North Korea is rapidly upgrading its conventional forces with the help of its military partnership with Russia, recently revitalized by the Ukraine war.

In exchange for North Korean arms and soldiers, Russia has given the North a live combat laboratory to test its weapons and troops, refine its missile performance and master drone warfare. The North’s military may soon be able to unleash vast swarms of low-cost drones to overwhelm the more expensive, high-tech defenses of South Korea and the U.S. forces stationed there.

Early this month, under the watch of its leader, Kim Jong-un, North Korea launched what it called a nuclear-capable ballistic missile from its east coast toward waters between Russia’s Far East and Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido.

Officials in South Korea and Japan estimated the missile traveled around 430 miles. But Pyongyang said it flew 621 miles. It ridiculed them for losing track of the warhead, claiming it performed sudden, irregular “wavelike” maneuvers while flying at several times the speed of sound — signature behaviors of a hypersonic missile. “This means there is no way to avoid this attack,” North Korea said.

South Korea usually responds to North Korean missile tests with brief statements condemning them as provocative. But five days after the North’s launch, it test-fired its own hypersonic ballistic missile for the first time, observed by President Lee Jae Myung, indicating that Seoul has grown increasingly uneasy over the rapid advancement of North Korea’s missile technology…

It has been able to make such strides thanks to valuable battlefield data and feedback acquired while helping Russia fight in Ukraine, said Anton Ponomarenko, a researcher at Pacific Forum who monitors Russia-North Korea military cooperation. He noted that improved accuracy and maneuverability of its warheads made the threat to South Korea “more substantial.”

Cooperation with Russia has also helped the North develop new drone capabilities. Pyongyang has learned from the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East that inexpensive drones can overwhelm costly air-defense systems. During a North Korean drill last month, a drone swarm attacked a target island, while cruise and ballistic missiles struck simultaneously from different directions. North Korea’s evolving tactics will eventually force South Korea and its allies to redesign their air defenses at exorbitant costs, defense experts said.

The consequences are already visible: Photos from Mr. Kim’s visit to a drone factory last month indicated that North Korea has begun mass-producing drones.

Even before North Korea began receiving help from Russia, its military was working to make its weapons harder to target. It has tested missiles launched from submarines and mobile launchers hidden in tunnels. It also switched from liquid to solid fuel to drastically reduce missile launch preparation time.

South Korea still relies on the presence of U.S. military bases, and ultimately the American nuclear arsenal, as a deterrent against a nuclear attack. It has not sought to develop its own atomic weapons, but instead to offset the North’s growing strike capabilities by building up conventional arms to create what analysts call a balance of fear. That means strengthening its three-pronged strategy for responding to a potential attack: pre-emptive strikes, missile defense and massive retaliation.

On the day South Korea tested its first hypersonic missile, President Lee’s office released a photo of him inspecting another new weapon, the Hyunmoo-5 missile. Dubbed a “monster” by local media, it reportedly carries an eight-ton bunker-buster warhead that can penetrate shelters deep underground to kill enemy leaders.

During an interview with The New York Times last month, Mr. Lee described South Korea’s conventional retaliation capability as “probably one of the most capable in the world.”

To monitor North Korean missile activity, South Korea operates reconnaissance aircraft and satellites in close coordination with the United States. Seoul also maintains air and naval superiority, while Pyongyang largely depends on aging Soviet-era aircraft and the capabilities of newly built destroyers remain unproven.

Like North Korea, South Korea has leveraged overseas conflicts to boost its defense industry. In June, Mr. Lee said that during the wars in Ukraine and Iran foreign leaders have rushed to secure South Korean air-defense missiles, with one country even sending a cargo plane to collect them directly from the production line.

Defense analysts say North Korea has now surpassed South Korea in some capabilities. Some of the South Korean military’s recent drone tests ended in high-profile flops, with drones crashing shortly after takeoff. And North Korea unveiled the completed hull of what it called its first nuclear-powered submarine in December, while South Korea is still negotiating with Washington to secure fuel for a similar vessel it hopes to build by the mid-2030s.

South Korea is reacting to the growing threat from the North by increasing military spending at a record pace. It has pledged to raise defense expenditures from 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product, becoming the first American ally to adopt such a target amid Washington’s pressure on partners to reduce reliance on U.S. forces.

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