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10:25 18.07.2026 •
French President Emmanuel Macron’s successor will need to find €126 billion ($144 billion) of savings just to stabilize debt over a five-year term, economists warned, Bloomberg notes.
A report commissioned by the finance ministry shows the deficit swelling to nearly 7% of output in 2030 without policy action, principally because of a rising bill to service borrowing costs as well as rapid growth in spending for social security, health and defense.
The authors, including former European Central Bank official Natacha Valla, said governments will need to use every lever available including tax increases. They stressed however that efforts should focus on cutting spending in a country that already has one of the world’s highest tax burdens.
The findings are a bleak warning for candidates hoping to succeed Macron in May next year. With such vast efforts required to get the public finances under control, they will have little margin to pledge sweeteners to voters.
Right leader Marine Le Pen, who currently heads the polls, has not presented details of how she would tackle France’s fiscal difficulties. Centrist candidate Edouard Philippe, whom surveys point to as a likely second-round rival to Le Pen, has said he would cut the deficit to 2% of output by 2032 if he wins.
Her National Rally party is currently working on an update of its economic program to account for the “financial challenges” of high debt, lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy said on Thursday.
“Unfortunately, it’s obviously necessary to adjust to be credible, to repair the situation,” he said on RTL radio.
Investors are watching closely after two years of political fragmentation since snap legislative elections already thwarted the attempts of Macron’s governments to rein in spending. During that time of upheaval and repeated toppling of prime ministers, bouts of bond-selling have driven up borrowing costs relative to peers.
The report on France’s public finances is also a warning for the short term. The current administration is preparing to negotiate a 2027 budget with parliament in the fall, and is struggling to stay on track with this year’s target of reducing the deficit to 5% of economic output.
“Stopping the infernal machine of public debt requires collective clear-sightedness,” said Budget Minister David Amiel. “This independent, unprecedented report brings transparency to the state of public finances and provides an objective assessment of what awaits us if nothing is done.”
The economists urged France to front load efforts to narrow the deficit in the coming years, with a significant plan for 2027, even before the election.
“Delaying the effort would require an even more intense effort later, concentrated over a very short period,” the economists said. “The likelihood of negative effects on growth emerging would increase, and market confidence could be abruptly affected.”
The group said France is already suffering from a deterioration of its financing conditions as annual issuance of medium-to-long-term bonds has increased by more than €100 billion since 2019.
In an unchanged policy scenario, they estimate debt servicing costs would rise by €46 billion over the next four years, reaching €124 billion in 2030.
“A significant debt is a slow poison for the economy that crowds out spending on the future to pay interest,” the economists said.
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