CNN: US intel assesses Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on

US intelligence agencies have recently assessed that Iran can effectively shut down access to the Strait of Hormuz at will from now on, meaning the country’s regime has acquired a powerful new ability to hurt the global economy as a result of the war, according to three sources familiar with the findings.

Regardless of the framework agreement that is due to be formally signed on Friday to open the key waterway as a prelude to nuclear talks, Iran proved it can shut off access to the strait during the current conflict and US intelligence assessments suggest that could happen again.

“We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait – a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” one of the sources familiar with the US intelligence assessments told CNN, emphasizing how the war has fundamentally altered Tehran’s thinking about leveraging similar tactics in the future.

The US has had to negotiate with Iran intensively to fully re-open the strait, underscoring the Iranians’ continued leverage.

CNN approached the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for comment.

A senior US official told CNN that Iran cannot access “any benefits” of the framework agreement unless the strait remains open and it abides by the other points it agreed to. The senior official did not detail what those benefits are, but explained that the US will wind down its blockade in proportion with Iran restoring traffic in the strait. If Iran “performs, the relief follows and American leverage holds the entire way”, the senior official added.

Uncertainty over what’s in the agreement and other risks are also likely to keep traffic through the critical chokepoint to a trickle for weeks or months, according to shipping industry officials and experts who track ship movements.

There have been discussions that allies may police the strait in some way once it is open, but at the moment it is unclear how that would work and the latest intel assessments take that possibility into consideration, the sources said.

Taken together, the recent US intelligence assessments underscore the lasting impact of President Donald Trump’s decision to initiate the conflict without fully accounting for Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz and raise fresh questions about Tehran’s ability to weaponize the global economy going forward — a problem that extends beyond the scope of any framework agreement between the two countries that may reopen the key waterway.

While there is not currently a consensus within the intelligence community, multiple sources familiar with the US assessments said Iran has been emboldened by the fact it was able to both close the strait and target the energy infrastructure of Gulf countries without expending significant capabilities.

Iran had long threatened to shut down the strait in response to an attack by foreign adversaries, including the US and Israel, but had not demonstrated the ability to successfully do so prior to Trump’s decision to launch combat operations along with Israel earlier this year.

Iran also knows it can get the Houthis to shut down Bab-el-Mandeb but they are aware taking such drastic action would derail the diplomatic process with nuclear talks due to begin, one of the sources noted.

Shutting Bab-el-Mandeb down, combined with shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would completely blow up the global economy, the same source said.

The second source familiar with recent US intelligence assessments told CNN it is notable that the Houthis have not resumed large-scale attacks against US or other European vessels but have said that any Israeli-flagged or owned ships are fair game. Expanding the scope of potential targets beyond Israeli vessels would represent a serious escalation, the source noted.

The Iranians have only held back so far from enlisting the Houthis to take that step, the sources said, because they know it could derail ongoing peace talks.

But it remains a card Iran could play if the pursuit of a deal falls apart and the US resumes full combat operations — something Trump has been wary to do.

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