Euractiv: The EU fears having a date for Ukraine’s entry imposed on it in a future peace deal with Russia

For the first time since Croatia joined in 2013, there’s a new sense of dynamism in the EU’s expansion plans. Today in Luxembourg, Ukraine and Moldova will officially kick off negotiations by opening their first ‘cluster’ of reforms talks, and best pupil Montenegro will advance even further, Euractiv notes.

Enlargement momentum suggests the bloc is growing, attractive, bristling with purpose and togetherness.

But don’t be fooled. Behind the ecstatic social media posts about Ukraine’s advances lies a dense thicket of political hurdles, on both sides.

Péter Magyar has made this breakthrough possible by lifting Hungary’s veto after securing an agreement on the rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. But he has also suggested that Ukraine’s accession should be considered over a 10-15 year horizon. There’s nothing to stop another member from taking Kyiv’s accession process hostage in future.

Ukraine hopes to open all five remaining clusters this summer. An extremely tall order, especially considering how nervous France was about merely closing a few chapters for tiny Montenegro last year.

EU governments wary of enlargement, and mindful of electorates facing knife-edge elections, are likely to want to slow the rhythm and dose the wins for Ukraine more sparingly. Countries are divided over whether additional clusters should be opened immediately, a senior diplomat told me.

Brussels is putting the ball firmly in Kyiv’s court. During a visit to the Ukrainian capital last week, Marta Kos, the enlargement commissioner, stressed the need for sustained reform efforts and political unity across party lines.

Privately, EU officials worry that volatility in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, is hampering progress, and that the pace of reforms has slowed since last year, especially after the fiasco surrounding anti-corruption legislation. Since then, corruption allegations have reached into Zelenskyy’s inner circle.

Lots of the technical work is already done, as Brussels used the period of Hungary’s veto to prepare extensively. But that painstaking groundwork might be made obsolete anyway. The EU fears having a date for Ukraine’s entry imposed on it in a future peace deal with Russia.

All the EU’s talk about being ready to step into the mediator role vacated by Washington rings hollow while there’s no agreement on how to fast-track Ukraine’s accession.

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