Japan is re-engineering its Intelligence apparatus

PM Takaichi's long-held dream of establishing a "Japanese CIA," the "National Intelligence Agency"
Photo: jbpress.ismedia.jp

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's flagship plan to strengthen the government's command structure for intelligence operations is set to take shape with the creation of the "National Intelligence Council" and the "National Intelligence Bureau" as early as July.

On May 27, the upper house of the Japanese National Diet approved a law to establish a National Intelligence Council (NIC) and a National Intelligence Bureau (NIB) following the law’s approval in the lower house on April 23. This push, led by Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae, comes as Japan is faced with what it perceives to be an increasingly complex international environment with modern threats that Japan’s current intelligence and defense apparatus is improperly equipped to handle, The Diplomat notes.

The creation of the NIC and the NIB is the first in a three-stage set of reforms to Japan’s intelligence community. The NIC is envisioned to serve as an intelligence command center, chaired by the prime minister and composed of cabinet officials. The NIB would serve as its secretariat, staffed by public servants who handle day-to-day operations. The NIB would be vested with overarching coordination authority to unify the efforts of Japan’s disparate intelligence organizations and break down the bureaucratic silos and turf wars that characterize the intelligence community’s operations.

These developments mirror the establishment of Japan’s National Security Council and National Security Secretariat in 2013, which made great strides toward enhancing cooperation between Japan’s intelligence agencies and dissemination of intelligence products to the Cabinet and the prime minister. It is worth noting that the NSC and NSS are primarily policy coordination units, and their intelligence coordination efforts are merely a stopgap measure until the Japanese government could successfully separate policy and intelligence functions. The establishment of the NIB and NIC promises to enable such a separation, and lay the foundation for Japan to create a central intelligence agency.

Nevertheless, the NIB and NIC will not be quick, definitive solutions to Japan’s bureaucratic struggles. The Ministry of Defense (MOD), Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), and National Police Agency (NPA) have all persistently struggled with issues of sharing intelligence and fighting over jurisdiction and prestige of their respective intelligence agencies.

Reforms to Japan’s intelligence community have generally come shortly after intelligence failures, as international events and a changing world highlight Japan’s military and intelligence inadequacies in self-defense. The recent growing tensions between China and Japan have presented such an opportunity for reform, but the Japanese public remains concerned.

The second stage of Japan’s comprehensive intelligence reform involves the passage of an anti-spy law, sparking concerns that the Japanese government would infringe upon its citizens’ civil liberties in the process of conducting counterintelligence operations. Opponents of the current intelligence reforms assert that insufficient guardrails are in place to ensure transparency and maintain oversight over intelligence agencies, something that Japan has often struggled with.

The third and final stage of Japan’s intelligence reform touches upon yet another persistent issue, which is in intelligence collection and analysis. Specifically, the MOFA plans to enhance its collection capabilities. While Japan is noted to be proficient at signal, imagery, and open-source intelligence collection and exploitation, its HUMINT, counterintelligence, and covert action capabilities left much to be desired. Once again, these deficiencies are a natural consequence of the Japanese public’s antimilitarist sentiment.

The establishment of the NIB and NIC are not radical departures from the status quo, but rather another step in a natural progression of Japan’s intelligence community that spans decades. The timing of this step however, is most certainly tied to geopolitical exigencies, primarily the great power competition between the United States and China. The institution of major reforms to Japan’s military and intelligence community have caused China a significant degree of consternation. Meanwhile, Washington has spent many years encouraging Japan to enhance its capabilities to improve prospects for intelligence sharing and mutual defense cooperation. Additionally, with the America First policies of the Trump administration, Japan may find itself incentivized to strengthen its intelligence apparatus in order to enjoy the benefits of the alliance with the United States.

For the moment, with the intelligence reforms, it appears that Takaichi has opted to reject bandwagoning with China, and is hedging her bets on a scenario where Japan continues to grow with the United States or where Japan stands alone.

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