View from Berlin: Blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz – Has a Global war for oil begun?

Pic.: You Tube

The announced US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz marks a dangerous escalation. What began as Israel's war against Gaza threatens to escalate into a global war for energy, ‘Berliner Zeitung’ writes.

Ukraine, Gaza, Iran, Taiwan – wars and crises are intensifying. And many are asking: when will the situation change, when will the escalation begin? The US government's announcement of its own naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is precisely such a moment. So, the nature of the entire Middle East conflict is changing.

What began in October 2023 as Israel's retaliatory strike against Hamas, escalated into a neo-imperialist war of expansion and aggression against Gaza and Lebanon, and culminated in open warfare between the US and Israel against Iran in February 2026. It is now becoming something much more important. It will evolve into a war for control of global energy flows — and, consequently, for the very architecture of world order.

The Strait of Hormuz as a weapon

The Strait of Hormuz is a bottleneck in the global economy. Around 20 percent of the world's oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas pass through this narrow waterway, just 50 kilometers wide, with shipping channels just over three kilometers wide, between Iran and Oman. Since the beginning of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February 2026, the strait has been effectively closed — though not completely. Tehran has instituted a selective regime: Iranian oil continues to flow, but not to everyone.

The numbers speak for themselves. Until the end of 2025, China imported approximately 1.38 million barrels of Iranian crude oil per day — about 13 percent of its total crude oil imports and simultaneously 80-90 percent of Iran's oil exports. This oil was often relabeled, declared as Malaysian oil, and refined at small private refineries, paid for in yuan through China's own CIPS payment system, to bypass the Western-controlled SWIFT network.

According to Columbia University's Center for Global Energy Policy, more than 46 million barrels of Iranian oil were recently stored in floating storage units in Asia and in bonded warehouses in the Chinese ports of Dalian and Zhoushan, where the National Iranian Oil Company leases storage facilities.

Iran didn't simply block the strait; it repurposed it as a geopolitical weapon. Reports indicate that Chinese-flagged vessels were apparently still able to secure passage, while Western tankers remained blocked. Tehran was deciding who could pass and who couldn't. It's a blockade with a friendship clause.

The US counter-blockade – and its true purpose

This is where the US statement comes into play. Now Washington, in turn, will control what passes through the strait. Officially, the blockade is aimed at Iran, its oil exports, and the funding of its military apparatus. But anyone who examines the list of recipients of Iranian oil will recognize the real target: China.

The naval blockade primarily targets those states that ensured the uninterrupted export of Iranian oil. China tops the list, followed by a number of smaller buyers receiving Iranian oil through complex trade routes. Washington's message is clear: anyone who supports Iran's economy becomes a target. The blockade is not so much a military measure against Tehran as an attempt to establish energy control over Beijing.

The scale is enormous. Around 5.4 million barrels of oil flow daily through the Strait of Hormuz to China — more than twice what Russia supplies via pipelines and sea routes. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are China's most important suppliers from the Persian Gulf. Together, they cover about half of China's crude oil needs and 30 percent of its LNG needs. A permanent closure of the strait would plunge China into a serious energy crisis, despite its strategic reserves, estimated at 1.3–1.4 billion barrels — enough for about four months.

The ‘Fine line’ between a ‘Hot war’

Could this proxy war escalate into an open conflict between major powers? History teaches us that wars rarely end where they begin. The mechanisms of escalation are already in motion, perhaps a little rusty after decades of global stagnation, but they are accelerating.

First, the US naval blockade is forcing China to respond. Beijing cannot remain idle while its energy supply is disrupted. China's strategic reserves only last four months—after that, its survival is at risk. Each month of the blockade increases the pressure on Beijing to intervene more actively.

Second, mysterious drone flights over US military bases on US soil — large, unhackable, and clearly not civilian — are interpreted by experts like Gordon Chang as a warning from China. Third, a protracted war in Iran ties up US military resources and diverts them from the Indo-Pacific, which could have far-reaching consequences for Taiwan and the South China Sea. Beijing monitors US Navy operations in the Persian Gulf in real time, gathering intelligence that would be invaluable in a future conflict over Taiwan.

Long-term calculation

Beijing's strategy follows a compelling logic: not to interfere, but to extract benefits. The longer the war lasts, the more dependent Iran becomes on China. The more resources the US burns in the Persian Gulf, the weaker its position in the Indo-Pacific. The higher oil prices rise, the greater the impact on Europe and the countries of the Global South, while China gains a relative competitive advantage thanks to its deflationary economy and massive subsidies. Standard oil price sensitivity models show that a 25% increase in oil prices costs China approximately 0.5% of GDP. Painful, but bearable. For Europe, still suffering from the aftermath of the energy shock in Ukraine, a sustained oil price of $100 per barrel would be another serious blow.

Napoleon is credited with the witty phrase, "Never interrupt an enemy when he's making a mistake." This quote is now widely circulating on Chinese internet forums.

The question of World war

Is this already a world war? Not yet, in the classic sense. There are no formal declarations of war between major powers, no direct military clashes between the armed forces of the US and China. But the structure of this conflict — a regional war that, through proxies, supply chains, and energy blockades, has morphed into a global struggle between the US and China — is reminiscent of the escalation dynamics that historically led to world wars.

The war in the Middle East has long since transcended its regional borders. What began as Israel's war against the Palestinians has, via Lebanon and Iran, morphed into a conflict over control of global energy flows. The Strait of Hormuz is more than just a waterway. It's a fault line in the global order. And both sides — Washington and Beijing — seem willing to risk everything on this fault line.

The question posed by Professor Kerry Brown of King's College London remains the most pressing: "What's the plan?" Presumably, he added, China is thinking the same thing as everyone else: "Oh my God, they really went into this without a plan."

A war without a plan, but with explosive force capable of setting the world ablaze.

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