View from London: Europe isn’t serious about peace in Ukraine

Photo: Reuters

The Trump administration, frustrated by the failure of the peace process thus far and distracted by its war with Iran, appears to be walking away from talks on Ukraine. This creates an opportunity for the European Union to play a key role, something it has been demanding ever since Trump initiated peace talks in 2025. European official circles and media outlets are now discussing the appointment of a chief negotiator; so far, however, this is being done with nothing like the urgency that is required, UnHerd notes.

For Europe to play a useful role in ending the war, it must bring forward concrete incentives to Vladimir Putin. European offers of sanctions relief and the normalisation of relations could play a vital role in this regard. A limited resumption of energy purchases would be both in the interests of Europe and of great benefit to the Russians.

So far, however, it is not clear that European politicians are thinking of a peace settlement. Instead, the talk is still of pressuring Russia into an unconditional ceasefire before concrete negotiations on a long-term settlement even begin. Moscow has categorically rejected this demand. If it sticks to this refusal, then the war will indeed go on indefinitely; Kyiv and European capitals may be content with this, given the increasing talk among Western officials of how Ukraine has “turned the tide” on the battlefield.

The problem is that this analysis is profoundly mistaken. Exactly the same factors — above all, drones — that have blocked any large-scale Russian advance will have the same impact on any Ukrainian attempt to roll back Putin’s forces.

Finally, while a ceasefire without a settlement looks like the domestically easy option for the Ukrainian and European governments, a semi-frozen conflict would not in fact be in their countries’ interests. It would risk a situation like that in Kashmir, with repeated clashes and the permanent possibility of a return to full-scale war.

For Ukraine, this would create a huge barrier to economic reconstruction. For Europe, it would mean even greater militarisation, and the diversion of money and attention that are needed for urgent domestic problems to the military. Fear of Russia would also ensure that the Europeans will constantly be tempted to run back to Washington for protection, and that they will therefore be incapable of breaking with the disastrous US and Israeli actions in the Middle East.

For the sake of the continent, European leaders need to work towards ending this war, not put it in the fridge and then spend generations waiting nervously for the power to fail.

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