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11:07 13.07.2026 •
PAC-3 MSE
Photo: weapons.substack.com
During their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump and President Zelensky reached a major agreement regarding Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile interceptors, writes Stephen Bryen a former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense.
The PAC-3 (Patriot Advanced Capability-3) is the premier hit to kill air defense missile used by the US and by many US allies. It played a major role in the Iran conflict.
The proposed arrangement for Ukraine has two parts: a political agreement to give Ukraine a license to manufacture PAC-3 interceptors; a short term supply of PAC-3 interceptors from US inventory, “to bridge the gap.”
Ukraine is confident it can manufacture PAC-3 missiles under license.
Today the only production of PAC-3 missiles outside the United States is in Japan where Mitsubishi Heavy Industries produces them under license.
The designation “PAC-3 Interceptor” is important. The US is focusing on expanding the production of PAC-3 MSE interceptor missiles, which have significantly greater range and other improvements compared to the PAC-3. While it needs clarification, it appears President Trump offered PAC-3 but not PAC-3 MSE to Ukraine.
The US and Ukraine will soon start “technical talks” where many of the major issues, still undecided, can be addressed.
It is not clear if the MSE version can defeat Russia’s hypersonic missiles such as the Kinzhal, Zircon or Oreshnik. The PAC-3 version would face problems against the Kinzhal and Zircon and probably not be able to stop the Oreshnik.
The US is struggling to manufacture a significant number of PAC-3 missiles (standard ones and MSE versions). The US Army requested an unprecedented 2,798 PAC-3 MSE interceptors and the Navy requested an additional 405 modified variants for AEGIS ships, both part of the FY 2027 Budget Request. There are serious questions if these procurement targets can be met.
Lockheed Martin is the license holder for the PAC-3 interceptor. However, Lockheed depends on some 400 suppliers including Boeing, which manufactures the all-important sensor package for the missiles and Rocketdyne that makes the rocket engines. Even when there are no supplier problems, it takes Lockheed two years to manufacture a missile. However, many of the suppliers have fallen way behind in producing critical components, including Boeing and Rocketdyne.
There are no hard numbers on the currently remaining inventory of PAC-3 missiles in the US inventory. The numbers are classified. All we have are guesstimates.
The US and its Gulf allies fired a large number of PAC-3 missiles in the war with Iran. On top of that Ukraine used large numbers of Patriots to fend off Russian missile and drone attacks.
The US inventory size is variously estimated by defense specialists at around 2,000 to 2,500. Even taking into account the US effort to ramp up manufacturing, the build time and supply issues suggest that the US can’t really augment its inventory significantly before 2028 at the earliest, and more likely not until 2030.
If Ukraine starts from scratch with a Lockheed license, and possibly given some priority in the supply chain (which is not a sure thing), Ukraine can only hope to produce PAC-3 interceptors starting in 2029 to 2030.
There is a lot of risk in Ukraine producing PAC-3 interceptors. Risks include Russian penetration of manufacturing know-how and technology, theft of critical components, and exposure to attack from Russian missiles and drones. Increasingly Russia is targeting known Ukrainian defense factories, and one would think a PAC-3 production line would be a prime target for the Russians.
There is also a question of who will pay for a Ukrainian factory. The Trump-Zelensky agreement did not cover the financial issue, but the US will be requesting NATO countries to foot the bill.
Ukraine has few options for sophisticated air defenses.
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