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14:26 28.10.2026 •
In an interview with International Affairs, Andrey Areshev, a political analyst and expert at the Foundation for Strategic Culture, discussed a special report by the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
"Last summer, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the release of a special report by the Eurasian Economic Union about the potential consequences of suspending the EAEU treaty with respect to Armenia. Published just a few days ago, the report, prepared by highly qualified experts from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, is now being actively discussed in Armenia and in other member states of the Union," Andrey Areshev said.
"I think that the release of this report is a significant move, showing that the process of distancing and potentially even suspending the Republic of Armenia’s membership in the EAEU could go quite far. As was mentioned before, the deadline is December 2026 when the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council is scheduled to meet again and where I believe this document, along with its entire political and economic context, will be thoroughly examined," the expert added.
"The document examines Yerevan’s steps toward joining the European Union, the compatibility of obligations within the two blocs, and the legal mechanisms for avoiding associated risks. It also provides a legal assessment of the law adopted in March 2025, which initiates the process of Armenia’s accession to the European Union. Quite naturally, this law produced a very negative impression," Areshev noted.
"The report also provides concrete figures and estimates regarding the price Yerevan will have to pay for severing ties with the EAEU. Armenia’s total trade turnover with EAEU member states is projected to decline by almost $4.5 billion, which is a drop of more than 55 percent from last year’s figure; from nearly $8 billion to $3.5 billion. All told, Armenia’s exports to the EAEU’s markets are expected to shrink by more than $2 billion, which means that we would see a two-thirds decline compared to the 2025 levels," Andrei Areshev explained.
"A suspension of Armenia’s membership in the EAEU could bring its gross domestic product (GDP) down by more than 15 percent. The money sent home by labor migrants in Russia could drop by nearly $2 billion, which, according to some estimates, accounts for 15 percent of the republic’s GDP. Furthermore, the cost of gas imports to Armenia could go up by more than two-thirds," the expert noted.
"The report points out - and this is crucial - that in terms of labor migration, small and medium-sized business interactions, social ties, technological exchange, and cooperation between individual enterprises, the consequences of withdrawing from the Eurasian integration bloc are virtually impossible to calculate. The abovementioned figures just roughly estimate the potential damage; in reality, the impact could be far greater," Andrey Areshev warned.
"The impression is that with his emotional, ill-considered, and - to put it mildly - not entirely rational statements, Nikol Pashinyan has achieved his goal: he has been heard and taken seriously by the Eurasian Union. The response has come at the highest level, for now in the form of an analytical report. However, if the situation continues to unfold as it is now, the question of Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union will surely be addressed at the highest level this December. Chances are very high that all the negative consequences outlined by the report’s authors will start to fully manifest themselves already in January of the coming year," Andrey Areshev believes.
The views of the author are his own and may differ from the position of the Editorial Board.
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