NYT: Why Europe worries about a politically wounded Trump

The commanding victory of the Democrats has brought private relief to some Europeans but no official glee, with Ukraine, Iran and NATO all hanging in the balance, The New York Times notes.

President Trump may be politically damaged by the midterms, but he remains an immensely powerful and unpredictable actor who has legacy on his mind.

In the wake of a stunning electoral defeat for his Republican Party, European governments have largely restrained from any official glee, recognizing that they must retain good relationships with Mr. Trump.

They do not know if a lame duck Mr. Trump will become an angry one. But they understand, officials and analysts said, that the new Congress will have only limited constraints on Mr. Trump’s foreign policy. And they believe he wants to leave his mark not just on Washington, but on foreign affairs, where he has broad freedom of action.

In the short run, they expect him to push as best he can to resolve the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine and keep the pressure on Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense. They also assume that Mr. Trump will continue to focus on the Western Hemisphere, especially Venezuela and Cuba.

Looking ahead, European allies will want to reach out to the new faces in Congress to better understand a changing United States and to try to convince a new generation of politicians and business leaders that the trans-Atlantic relationship is adaptable and vital to America’s long-term interests.

“Europeans need to try to keep the Trump administration engaged in Europe, so we don’t want to add insult to injury” by lauding his defeat, said Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador to Washington and chairman of the Munich Security Conference. “Let the Americans celebrate. If we celebrate an opposition win, we’re not doing our jobs.”

At the same time, he said, it is a time for Europeans to increase their engagement across the United States. “There is a small chance that American decision makers might develop a new interest in Europe, not as an unnecessary burden but as an interesting and important ally.”

In the past two years alone, Mr. Trump has badly strained the trans-Atlantic relationship by questioning the utility of NATO, threatening to seize Greenland from a NATO ally and reducing U.S. support for Ukraine as it battles a Russian invasion.

The longer-term hope is for a more productive relationship after a new president is elected in 2028. There is general acknowledgment that there is no return to the warm ties of the Biden years regardless of who wins, said Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin. For Europeans the lesson should be clear, he said — “double-down on our ability to defend ourselves without relying on the U.S., rather than slowing down what until now is only a halfhearted effort to stand on our own feet militarily.”

Most pressing: Iran and Ukraine

The most immediate concerns are about the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and about what Mr. Trump will decide about the presence and location of American forces in Europe.

Ukrainian officials are anxious that Mr. Trump will try to use the period between now and the sitting of the new Congress in January for further efforts to mollify Mr. Putin, including another summit meeting in Florida, two senior European officials said.

“For Europe, the greatest danger comes from Trump’s erratic policy toward Russia and Ukraine,” said Daniela Schwarzer, president of the Hertie School and a professor of European governance and geopolitics. “The risk of an even closer alignment between Washington and Moscow remains as Trump is now weakened.”

On Iran, Mr. Trump appears to want to negotiate instead of escalating a war that has proved so unpopular with American voters, officials and analysts believe.

“Having lost Congress and seen the Iran war become an electoral liability, Trump now faces a choice: cut a face-saving deal and declare victory, or double down militarily to reclaim the initiative,” said Ali Vaez, a Geneva-based Iran expert at the International Crisis Group.

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