РУССКИЙ
11:11 06.11.2026 •
Setting the tone for the November 10-11 negotiations in Abu Dhabi, President Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, announced that the parties would discuss post-war security mechanisms, de-escalation, humanitarian issues, and further steps toward peace. Furthermore, later this week, the US negotiators are scheduled to meet in Brussels with representatives from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the EU, and NATO to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, the future of Europe’s security architecture, and Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. "We intend to build upon the progress made in Kyiv, Oslo, and St. Petersburg to reach a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement that will ensure security for generations to come," Witkoff said [i] on the eve of the November 3 congressional elections.
On election day, the United States was swept by a "blue wave" with the Democratic Party gaining control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This has created a classic "lame duck" scenario where a president loses his grip on power, and his ability of political maneuver and his sway are constrained, especially now that he is serving his second term. The Republicans even lost their traditional family strongholds. For example, a member of the Graham family - the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham (designated as an extremist in Russia) - lost her election bid to a Democrat. In the meantime, Trump posted a picture of his signature red cap, now with the word "VETO" instead of "MAGA." His presidency now risks turning into a standoff with the legislature, with a series of congressional investigations to boot. Moreover, Trump’s support among the Republican Party is likely to spiral down as many GOP members believe that he is creating problems for the party, especially with the 2028 presidential election already looming on the horizon.
On the other hand, even the Republican-majority House of Representatives has not been particularly friendly toward Trump. That being said, Trump is by no means powerless. Indeed, impeachment is a complex procedure, meaning that this would require a number of his fellow Republicans in Congress voting for his ouster. Furthermore, not everything in the "MAGA" president’s policy is unacceptable to the liberal-globalist faction, represented in the US by the Democratic Party, because many aspects of his policy are fully in line with America’s broader interests.
It would be interesting to watch the unfolding dynamic between the Democrats and the so-called "techno-barons," who, although ideologically closer to the Democrats, still placed their political bets on Donald Trump, a Republican. Including Trump ally Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, who is close to J.D. Vance. These two people are the epitome of US technological supremacy - a goal shared by many in the Democratic camp. Yet the construction of infrastructure for high-tech industry, such as massive data centers, has become an issue of domestic political contention. Democrats often side with local environmentalists and activists who oppose these data centers, citing concerns over noise, environmental impact, and rising local electricity costs. At the same time, the Democrats clearly do not intend to give up on these technological advancements. After all, these very "techno-barons" are assisting Kyiv in its conflict with Russia on the battlefield by deploying and developing military-grade AI technologies.
US assistance to Ukraine will not necessarily strengthen much under a Democratic-controlled Congress. The general rhetoric may change, but things will mostly remain as they are now. Regarding support for Kyiv, Trump has devised a modus operandi where the US stays clear of any direct involvement while facilitating arms sales to Europeans and providing technological support, which serves both as a tool of influence and a means of controlling the intensity of the conflict (suffice it to mention the decision to slow down Starshield and Starlink used by the Ukrainian military).
The Ukrainian track is closely intertwined with the broader European agenda. There is no much optimism here either, with Politico having warned that Europe should not feel too overjoyed by a Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. Congress has virtually no power to constrain Trump’s authority when it comes to foreign policy or trade, and a Republican defeat could even increase the risk of new disagreements and toughening Washington’s demands on Europe.
Kurt Volker, who was the US State Department’s Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations (2017–2019), believes that while Democrats would feel much friendlier toward Ukraine and NATO, they would still be unable to compel Trump to take any specific action in this regard.
"They could approve funding, but Trump could simply turn around and say: 'Well, I’m not obligated to spend that money.' One shouldn't expect major changes from a Trump administration. Congress will investigate everything - Trump himself, his family, his family businesses, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Elon Musk, Pete Hegseth, and Kash Patel. Trump will resist this every step of the way, and it will turn into an absolute circus." [ii]
In certain areas, however, the Democrats are capable of standing up to Trump on the foreign policy front, and are already doing so. For example, Mikie Sherrill, a Congresswoman from New Jersey, is all set to thwart a deal with Russian diesel. She has sent a letter to 12 port and terminal operators, warning them that they could face millions of dollars in fines should they accept tankers carrying Russian diesel. [iii] This creates a potential conflict between her and the president, which is part of the Dems’ broader strategy.
Another deal that could become a target for the Democrats is a consortium led by American billionaire Todd Boehly, which has agreed to buy the Russian Lukoil company’s foreign assets through a securities exchange. According to Reuters, the agreement could be finalized within the next few weeks, although a definitive deal has not yet been reached. [iv] The portfolio, initially valued at $22 billion, includes oil fields, refineries, and gas stations across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. If the parties reach an agreement, the transaction could wrap up an asset-divestment process that has been ongoing for over a year. The fate of this deal may now become a subject of political horse-trading.
Let us get back to the Ukrainian front. In the walkup to the November 3 elections, London and Kyiv engaged in a "peace game" where President Vladimir Putin was to meet with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, followed by negotiations and a ceasefire. However, the agreements would inevitably be violated by all sorts of incidents and provocations, thus allowing Kyiv and Western media to portray Russia as the side violating the terms. The clear goal was to throw in question Russia’s willingness to negotiate and honor its commitments and, thereby, to discredit Putin.
Such was the situation before the election results came in. Zelensky is now set to demonstrably weaken Trump’s position by striking Russia’s oil refineries, above all the infrastructure underpinning the "diesel trade." Here he is getting support in the United States, notably from Democratic governors, as mentioned earlier.
Where will Trump focus his attention? Will he concentrate on domestic problems, which he failed to offset by geopolitical prospects or claims of "ending wars," or will he focus on confronting the Democrats, potentially by continuing his geopolitical interventions?
Acting from a position of relative weakness as president, Trump will send his proxies to Abu Dhabi. In light of the new realities he is now facing, by the time of that parley, he will have outlined his position regarding the Ukrainian crisis. However, chances still are that his stance will remain unchanged.
Trump feels annoyed by his inability to keep the situation under control: Zelensky is unmanageable, Europe looks to the Democrats, and no effective levers of influence over the usurper of power in Kyiv have been found. Just days before the elections, Zelensky obligingly "predicted" a decline in the global role of the United States. During a visit to Berlin, he said, "The role of the United States in the world may become even smaller. Therefore, Europe’s role in the world must become even greater." v Trump parried this by stating that "everything in Europe is falling apart."
In light of the election results, Western observers note that Ukraine no longer plays a significant role in US politics. Therefore, the Democrats are more likely to double down on resolving the situation around Iran or reforming the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency. vi In short, the Democrats will try to focus their political and economic resources on political struggles at home, leaving Trump to deal with geopolitical problems. At the same time, chances are very high that Trump will be pressured to toughen sanctions against Russia, while Kyiv will be tasked with continuing the war until the 2028 elections. This could encourage Kyiv to discard the option of ending the war along the current frontline, which it had previously agreed to bending under pressure from Trump. Zelensky will likely start talking once again about Ukraine joining NATO and "returning to the 1991 borders."
That said, Trump will retain control over Congress until the newly elected lawmakers are sworn in on January 3, 2027. During this time, the negotiation process may speed up. In a clear sign of Trump’s intent to pursue this negotiating track, Russia’s Special Representative Kirill Dmitriev and Human Rights Ombudsman Yana Lantratova visited Washington on November 5 following a humanitarian mission to Oleshky, and took part in an event hosted by US First Lady Melania Trump.
In reality, Kirill Dmitriev’s trip to Washington is not merely about the First Lady or the mission to Oleshky; it likely deals with matters such as a diesel deal, LUKOIL’s assets, and other, as-yet-unspecified, economic cooperation projects.
Trump faces clear and well-documented challenges, both domestically and internationally: prices are up and ongoing wars remain unresolved. Meanwhile, in Europe, people are increasingly feeling the pinch of rising costs, and a series of elections looms on the horizon. For the next two years, leading up to the 2028 presidential elections, the United States will be preoccupied with political strife at home. Zelensky continues to demand money and arms, while Ukraine remains mired in an economic and social crisis, a situation which, as everyone knows well, is the only way the Kyiv regime can survive. Against this backdrop, negotiations over the Ukrainian crisis could become an inevitable, although highly complex, solution to a flurry of global problems - from international security to economic confrontation.
The views of the author are his own and may differ from the position of the Editorial Board.
[i] https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/9079457
[ii] https://t.me/stranaua/253676
[iii] https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/28284123
[iv] https://tass.ru/ekonomika/28283937
[v] https://t.me/stranaua/253736
[vi] https://lenta.ru/tags/geo/kiev/
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