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11:02 04.09.2026 •
In September, local legislative elections will be held in the eastern German states of Saxony-Anhalt (September 6), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (September 20), and in Berlin (September 20). It would be no exaggeration to say that the upcoming elections could become a seismic event for the entire German political scene. Judging by the latest public opinion polls, chances are high that the opposition Alternative for Germany party (AfD), which emerged on the country’s political scene just 13 years ago, could secure a landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg, while also significantly improving its position in Berlin, where the SPD and CDU parties have alternately governed for decades.
According to a representative survey done by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on behalf of ZDF, the AfD, led by Martin Reichardt and Siegmund Ullrich, which is also listed as right-wing extremist by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BFF), is capable of securing 40 percent of the votes in Saxony-Anhalt - a near-absolute majority. Meanwhile, the CDU, led by the state’s current Prime Minister Sven Schulze, could get a measly 23 percent. Lagging behind are The Left with 13 percent, the SPD with nine percent, and the Greens with six percent. This means that even if all the so-called traditional political forces decide to join forces, chances of which are next to nil, they would barely garner enough votes to form a coalition government. This also means that in order to avoid a power vacuum in Saxony-Anhalt, they would end up with a new state government to include a number, if not a majority number, of AfD representatives, or to call new elections, which, with a high degree of probability, could already secure an absolute majority for the Alternative for Germany party.
In Mecklenburg, the ruling SPD party also finds itself in a real fix with most opinion polls predicting a hefty 36 percent of popular support for the AfD, while the SPD is projected to gain between 19 and 27 percent of the local vote. Meanwhile, all other political parties, with the exception of The Left (10-11 percent), are unlikely to overcome the five percent threshold required for a place in the state legislature.
In Berlin, the ruling CDU is also in turmoil. Having lost a significant share of support among Berliners, the party could receive 18-20 percent of the vote, thus tying with the AfD and losing the first place to The Left (20-22 percent) - something that has never happened before in the German capital.
Adding spice to the whole situation is the fact that the AfD is making such astounding progress despite the unprecedented use by the ruling political forces of their administrative leverage, and widespread vilification by all so-called democratic media. Thus, the SPD's rabidly pro-Ukrainian Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, together with the Greens' Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg, Cem Ozdemir, are planning to initiate proceedings to ban the AfD, even though this could only impact a few regional branches, such as those in Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. Pistorius and Ozdemir claim that the procedure is legally viable, backed up by evidence and prescribed by the country's constitution. No evidence is provided, of course, which is something that has become a hallmark of almost the entire Western political elite. And why? "Don’t think, it’s no good - just do it," as was the case with the "democracies" of the 1930s. Even the former Chancellor and liar Angela Merkel has joined the fight against the AfD.
"I think that now, once again, we must truly fight for this democracy -something we haven't had to do in many decades - and simply defend it, be a little braver, keep our word and say that this is a wonderful way of living," Merkel said during a recent event in Berlin, commenting on the pre-election situation in the eastern German states. This is full of generalities, but the message is clear. However, judging by public opinion polls, many Germans still disagree with her and are no longer ready to live in the "democracy” that she talked about.
Over the past week, Germany's public broadcaster, MDR (Central German Broadcasting), has regularly been breaking off its broadcasts, showing only a black square on screen, thus "democratically" hinting at what will happen to German television if the AfD comes to power.
Public rallies criticizing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) are being held everywhere, but the organizers find it hard to bring more than a thousand people onto the streets at any one time. Migrants are shuttering their stores for several hours, thus demonstrating to the local residents how bad life will be if the "alternative" party members call the shots in their local governments. Even the Merz cabinet, briefly waking up, finally announced a package of "breakthrough reforms" by the end of the year, in an attempt to discourage East Germans from voting for the AfD.
And of course, there is no way to avoid the issue of the "Russian trace" in today's German politics. Representatives of traditional political forces never tire of talking about Russia's interference in the German election campaign. For example, the Green Party, whose former leader and "patriot" of her country, Annalena Baerbock appears to have already settled permanently in the United States, intends to appeal to the State Criminal Police Office about Moscow's attempts to "destabilize the domestic political situation in Germany" ahead of the state elections. Susanne Ciborra-Seydlitz, the Greens’ candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, minced no words branding Russia's actions in Germany a "form of hybrid warfare," while “forgetting” once again to produce any evidence. Many German politicians continue to accuse the AfD of ties to Moscow and note that "if the AfD comes to power in the eastern states, Russia's influence in Germany will greatly increase." Well, it seems that this no longer frightens ordinary Germans, though.
So what are Germans really afraid of? Is it just protest voting? According to local analysts and political scientists, protest voting in the classic sense can give a political force between three and five percent of popular support, but certainly not tens of percent. In this case, however, a new, emerging reality and a pretty stable trend are already evident. Voting for the AfD are old and young citizens alike, people with a migrant background, members of the middle class, business people, intellectuals, academics, workers and farmers in both the West and the East of the country. Many Germans are gradually overcoming the historical familial conservatism when whole families and generations earlier voted for the CDU and SPD. They now see in the AfD a genuine alternative to the globalist liberal agenda ruthlessly pursued by traditional political forces, with no regard for national interests.
A recent study in Germany shows that a mere 17 percent of residents in Saxony-Anhalt (this also rings true for the country as a whole) are confident in the country's future. It looks like Germans are not concerned about Russian influence. What the average citizen sees is economic stagnation (with projected growth in 2026 not exceeding 0.1-0.2 percent), caused by the erratic domestic and foreign policy of every German government since 2009, which has resulted in tens of thousands of once-thriving companies going bust, and colossal job losses. Active replacement migration is forcing the native population to leave the country amid rising crime. Germans no longer believe that so-called traditional political forces are able to bring Germany back to a trajectory of sustainable economic growth and ensure its former prosperity. The "welfare state," a colossal achievement of many German governments in the 1960s-80s, has been officially abandoned. Meanwhile, Berlin is sliding toward militarism. Officials are openly talking about various timeframes for engaging in a direct armed conflict with Russia – a prospect that ordinary, level-headed Germans who have not yet lost their critical thinking naturally abhor.
Thus, the results of the upcoming vote in Germany will reflect the people’s logical reaction to the inaction of today's political elite. It is possible that if the AfD achieves a critical advantage over the CDU and SPD in state elections in the country’s east, this would significantly increase pressure on Chancellor Merz, above all within the CDU/CSU, potentially leading to his resignation and early elections in 2027. Therefore, the upcoming vote in regions considered "insignificant" by German standards could cause serious changes across the domestic political landscape, leading to an AfD victory in both the eastern states and beyond. This would be a fiasco for Germany’s entire domestic political structure established by the United States after World War II.
The views of the author are his own and may differ from the position of the Editorial Board.
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